Bucks vs Bulls Picks, Prediction Today | Friday, March 1

Here's everything you need to know about Bucks vs Bulls on Friday, March 1 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.

For a team with a losing record, the Chicago Bulls have pieced together an encouraging last few weeks and will look for their third win in four games when they welcome the Milwaukee Bucks on Friday night. Bucks vs Bulls tips off at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN. Bucks vs Bulls odds have the Bucks installed as 4-point favorites (-4) on the spread and the total is set at over/under 221.5 at FanDuel.

Can Chicago ride its defense to another win against a fatigued Milwaukee team, or will its offensive ineptitude once again be its undoing?

Let's get to our Bucks vs Bulls picks and Bucks vs Bulls prediction.

Pick: Bucks -4 (-108) | Play to -4.5

The Bucks may have let things get a little interesting on the second leg of a home-and-home against the Hornets on Thursday, but when the dust settled they'd come away with a fourth consecutive win and a fourth straight cover. Their shooting remained excellent for a third straight outing, as did their defense which posted an efficiency rating of 105.3.

Milwaukee's defense finished the month of February ranked third in the NBA for that period in time, and in holding the Hornets to just over 30% from outside it bucked a troubling season-long trend of allowing teams to remain in games from the perimeter. Though that was a great success story, we have to keep in mind that the Hornets are not world-beaters on offense and this team ranked 19th in February in defending beyond the arc.

The Bucks, however, have steadied their rim defense and have made great strides in the mid-range on that end. There's been a bit more of a struggle in scoring the ball for this team since bringing in Doc Rivers to shore up the defense, but with another great shooting night the Bucks were able to finish out the month in the top 10 of shooting accuracy from 3 according to Cleaning the Glass to remain a strong team outside and at the rim.

We won't have the injury report for quite some time on the second night of a back-to-back, but we do know that Khris Middleton will remain out for this one. Giannis Antetokounmpo has been popping up on the injury report lately and was listed as probable ahead of Thursday night's tilt, and there's certainly a slight chance Rivers decides to sit him on no rest. Keep eyes on that.

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Speaking of injuries, the troubled Bulls continue to suffer without Patrick Williams, who has been lost since late January with a foot issue, and Torrey Craig is set to miss his fifth straight game with a knee sprain. Alex Caruso missed Wednesday's game with a hamstring injury and is officially questionable for Friday's contest.

The absence of Caruso will certainly be felt should he miss another game here, given he's in the 98th percentile of estimated defensive impact this season according to Dunks and Threes. The Bulls, already hurting a bit on that end without Williams and Craig, have managed to put together two solid defensive performances in their last three games against the Cavaliers and Pelicans.

This Bucks team is certainly a notch above on offense, but with the step back the Bucks have taken in scoring the ball over the last few weeks, it's certainly not out of the question we see this Bulls defense show up once again. Chicago didn't have much to write home about on that end in the month of February, but it did close out with three impressive performances.

Chicago, like an inefficient offense, has taken the majority of its shots from the midrange this season and that trend has only grown more extreme over the last few weeks. It has had a decent level of success given the mastery of DeMar Derozan, but with the way Milwaukee stepped up and defended inside the arc in February, points will certainly come at a premium here.

It's hard to know what to make of the Bulls' last three games. In theory, without Caruso on the floor this team should not have any business putting forth above-average performances on defense, yet here we are discussing their sudden improvement. The Pelicans and Cavaliers both boast strong offenses, and despite some strong showings from 3-point range the Bulls were able to win the turnover battle each time, forcing a stunning 19 against New Orleans.

The issue here is that the Bucks hardly turn the ball over, ranking sixth for the season in turnover rate and ninth for the month of February. It's fair to say then, without those crucial changes of possession the Bulls' defense should regress back to the level we've seen all season long. They've been dreadful against the long ball and the Bucks have been brilliant from outside lately.

Sure, Chicago has been palatable when it comes to defending the rim, but Milwaukee doesn't get to the rim nearly as much as you'd assume given the reliance on Giannis Antetokounmpo. I expect the Bucks to continue laying waste to opposing defenses from the 3-point line here, and on the opposite side of the floor the Bulls really should have no business competing in this game shooting inefficient mid-range jumpers against a Milwaukee team which has been stellar in defending that shot over the last few weeks.

If Caruso is indeed out for this game, the scales will tilt even further towards the Bucks.

Pick: Bucks -4 | Play to -4.5

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