Bulls vs. 76ers Odds, Expert Pick, Prediction: DeMar DeRozan & Co. Have the Edge With Joel Embiid Out (January 6)
Jamie Sabau/Getty Images. Pictured: DeMar DeRozan #11 of the Chicago Bulls manuvers around P.J. Tucker #17 of the Philadelphia 76ers.
- The Philadelphia 76ers host the Chicago Bulls Friday night in Philly where they have won 11 in a row.
- The Sixers are small favorites (-4.5) at home despite the fact that Joel Embiid will not suit up.
- Corey Parson explains how he's betting the game below.
Bulls vs. 76ers Odds
|Time||7 p.m. ET|
|TV||NBA League Pass|
|Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.|
The Philadelphia 76ers will be looking to win their 12th-straight home game tonight when they face the Chicago Bulls. These two teams matched up earlier this season in Chicago where the Sixers won and covered on the road.
Can Philly do the same at home without their top player, Joel Embiid, on the sideline? Let’s dive into the Bulls vs. 76ers odds and see where we can find the value in tonight’s Eastern Conference clash.
The Jekyll and Hyde Bulls
The Bulls are coming off their best win of the season, a nine-point victory over the red-hot Brooklyn Nets that snapped the Nets’ 12-game winning streak. It was an encouraging win for the Bulls who suffered an epic meltdown against the Cleveland Cavaliers Monday, blowing a 21-point lead and allowing Donovan Mitchell to score a career-high 71 points in the process.
Tonight they look to snap the 76ers’ 11-game home winning streak. The Bulls are not exactly what we would call road warriors. They are 7-12 straight up and 10-9 against the spread on the road this season and they’ve been wildly inconsistent.
While they boast strong road wins over teams like the Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks, they also have road losses to the San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder. Prior to the aforementioned meltdown in Cleveland, the Bulls had won three straight on the road against the Miami Heat, Atlanta Hawks and New York Knicks and they are 4-2 ATS since Dec. 11.
The Bulls are at their best when they are generating their offense from the midrange. According to Cleaning the Glass, the Bulls rank fifth in terms of accuracy on long midrange shots (44.8%) and first in terms of frequency (17.6%). Defensively, the Sixers rank 28th in terms of frequency of shots allowed in this area and 18th in accuracy allowing opponents to shoot 41.2% on long midrange shots.
DeMar DeRozan is a master in this area, the Bulls’ best player is once again amongst the leaders in scoring at 26.6 points per game and he’s even better on the road this season. When the Bulls play away from home, DeRozan averages 29.2 points per game — 5.0 points better than his running mate Zach LaVine — on 51.3% shooting from the floor.
76ers Will Struggle Without Embiid
The 76ers are rolling right now. They are 11-3 straight up in their last 13 games. Currently the Sixers are fifth in the Eastern Conference, three games behind the pace setting Celtics, after opening the 5-7.
When faced with injuries to key players James Harden and Tyrese Maxey for a significant stretch, the Sixers turned to Embiid and he delivered. In the Month of December, Embiid led the NBA with 35.4 points per game, shot 54% from the field and a very impressive 41% from beyond the arc. The Sixers as a team were 9-4 SU and 8-5 ATS last month and Embiid was awarded Eastern Conference player of the month for his herculean efforts.
Now, with Embiid on the bench nursing a sore left foot, Harden and Maxey will have to pick up the slack. That will be a tall task. With Embiid on the floor this season, the 76ers have a +8.1 Net Rating compared to a -0.9 Net Rating with him off the floor.
The Sixers are 9-5 ATS in home games over the course of the last 5 weeks. Their average spread was -5.6. This game opened up with the Sixers as 5-point favorites, but that number was juiced to -115 on the underdog. Since then, the market has pushed the number down to the current line of -4.5.
Without Embiid in this game, DeRozan will be the best player on the court and I think the matchup is in the Bulls’ favor. Embiid has been such a force, it will be difficult for the Sixers to replace his production, which means this game should be much closer than the two records would suggest on the surface.
According to Action Network’s public betting percentages, early betting splits indicate the total amount of bets being wagered on this game are relatively even despite Joel Embiid being out for this game.
A closer look at where the money is going, though, shows the money is moving toward Chicago. The respected money will be on the Bulls tonight and so will I.
I bet the Bulls at +5, but I would still take them to cover at +4.5.