The Boston Celtics (2-3) and New York Knicks (3-2) face off in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference semifinals at 8 p.m. ET at Madison Square Garden in New York City on ESPN. The Knicks are 2.5-point favorites over the Celtics with the over/under set at 212 total points. New York is -142 on the moneyline and Boston is a +120 underdog.
Boston could be facing a letdown after all the emotions winning Game 5 without Jayson Tatum, but the Celtics might still be better than New York. The Knicks should win this game, but will they Knick like they haven’t Knicked since the early 2010s?
Let's get into my Knicks vs Celtics predictions and NBA picks tonight.
Knicks vs Celtics Odds
| Knicks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -112 | 212 -110o / -110u | -142 |
| Celtics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -108 | 212 -110o / -110u | +120 |
- Knicks vs Celtics spread: Knicks -2.5
- Knicks vs Celtics over/under: 212
- Knicks vs Celtics moneyline: Knicks -142, Celtics +120
- Knicks vs Celtics best bet: Knicks -2.5
Knicks vs Celtics Prediction
My Knicks vs. Celtics Game 6 best bet is on New York to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at BetMGM. But as always, shop for the best price using our live NBA odds page.
My Pick: Knicks -2.5 (-110)
Knicks vs Celtics Preview
The Celtics avoided elimination in an emotional game, their first without Jayson Tatum. Now, they hit the road for Friday's Game 6 to try and force a winner-takes-all matchup back in Boston.
The Knicks got worked on both ends of the floor in Game 5, seeming lifeless. But now, they’re back home with a chance to advance to their first conference finals since 2000.
Let’s talk a little about Tatum.
There’s zero way to argue that the Celtics are better without Tatum, and I won’t try. The key is that they’re different.
The Knicks are now facing a different team. Boston is a totally different team from two-big lineups with Luke Kornet, a more traditional pick-and-roll big than Kristaps Porzingis, to different defensive matchups.
I questioned whether the Celtics would be as good at generating offense without Tatum, and the fact is, they were.
Derrick White, a rejuvenated Jaylen Brown, and their cast of characters got the job done. They put up 49 3-point attempts, the most since the first matchup of their series.
This is the way for Boston. Throw up 3s and slow down the Knicks’ offense.
New York shot just 33% on 2-point attempts in the last game. They got to the free-throw line a ton, but Boston gave them nothing easy.
There’s a pathway here. The trends favor New York. Since 2003:
- Home favorites off a loss by 20+ points in Game 5 up 3-2 are 5-2 SU and ATS in Game 6.
- Home favorites that went up 3-2 and then lost Game 5 on the road are 24-17 SU, 17-14 ATS.
- After shooting better than 50% from the field and 40% from the 3-point range, road underdogs post-Round 1 are 27-65 SU (29%) and 41-50 (45%) ATS.
There’s a letdown effect probably in play for the Celtics as well. They won the home game, maybe the last home game of the season, and maybe the core of this team in the future on the heels of Tatum's surgery.
They must take a deep breath and beat the Knicks at MSG. They did it in Game 3, but Tatum was phenomenal. They lost Game 4 despite Tatum being phenomenal before his injury.
Can White and Brown keep this up? Will the bench contribute that much on the road?
Celtics vs. Knicks Picks
- Knicks -2.5 (-110)
- Under 211.5 (-115)
- Derrick White Over 20.5 Points (-115)
- Payton Pritchard Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made (-190)
Knicks -2.5 (-110 · BetMGM)
I’ll be honest with you, I’m terrified of trusting New York.
But it just has to be the Knicks. Even with how different the Celtics are, they’re without Tatum, and Porzingis was benched in the second half.
Historically, the odds suggest Boston’s win in the last game was a dead cat bounce.
Under 211.5 (-115 · BetMGM)
Game 6s are Under spots.
Game 7s are known to be Under spots, but the market has caught up with that trend.
Game 6s are elimination games without the spectre of a Game 7.
- The under in Game 6s after the first round is 39-54-3 (42%).
- Eastern Conference Game 6s are 55-39-2.
- In post-first-round playoff games, the game after a team shoots better than 50% from the field and 40% from 3, the under is 90-60-3 (60%).
The game script is that the Celtics’ hot shooting from the past game regresses, the Knicks do a little better job defending the 3-point line, and Tom Thibodeau makes some adjustments to slow things down.
I’m wary of that last part, but not enough not to play it.
If Boston wins, it’ll come from another dominant defensive effort.
Derrick White Over 20.5 Points (-115 · BetMGM)
Can’t stop, won’t stop.
White’s eclipsed this line in every single game of this series.
No Tatum? No problem. He scored more off the dribble with higher usage while still getting his 3-point attempts up.
White is one of the highest-floor players left in the postseason, and with Tatum out, he’s too important not to see the necessary usage to clear this line.
Payton Pritchard Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made (-190 · Fanatics)
With the under lean, I think paying the extra juice here for the 2.5 instead of the market consensus 3.5 is smart.
However, Pritchard has hit this in three of the five games and will continue to play more minutes than usual without Tatum.
Knicks vs Celtics Betting Trends
