Mavericks vs Thunder Game 1 Prediction: NBA Odds, Expert Pick (Tuesday, May 7)

Here's everything you need to know about Mavericks vs. Thunder on Tuesday, May 6 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today's game.

The Dallas Mavericks and Oklahoma City Thunder open their second-round series on Tuesday night.

Behind Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams, the Thunder enter as 3.5-point favorites with the total hovering around 218 at most sportsbooks.

So, where does the betting value lie in Game 1? Let's dive into my Mavericks vs. Thunder Game 1 prediction as we take a look at the NBA odds for Tuesday, May 7.

The Mavericks finally got over the hump against the Clippers, with a six-game series win in the first round. Now, the Mavericks head back on the road to Oklahoma City to take on the Thunder.

Maxi Kleber was a surprise addition to the injury report, and he will miss the series with a shoulder injury. Kleber was a key part of the Mavericks' 5-out lineups. His ability to space the floor while still playing versatile defense was an essential element for the Mavs.

In his absence, look for PJ Washington to fill the small-ball center role and for Derrick Jones Jr. to tack on a few extra minutes for his defense.

Luka Doncic has had a few extra days of rest to help his knee recover as well as get over his illness. While the Mavs are looking sharp and rearing up, they certainly face a tough task against the Thunder on the road.

Oklahoma City continues to shock the NBA world.

The Thunder rocketed up from an 11th seed to first in the Western Conference this season. They had an MVP candidate in Gilgeous-Alexander, Coach of the Year in Mark Daigneault, a Most Improved Player candidate in Williams and the runner-up for Rookie of the Year in Holmgren.

Nearly everything broke right for the Thunder, such as drawing a beat-up Pelicans team in the first round and cruising to a sweep.

Dallas will certainly be a tougher task, but I'm sure Oklahoma City will be well-prepared. Plus, it has both the rest advantage and home-court advantage on its side.

For that reason, I trust OKC in Game 1. As for the whole series, though, this is lining up to be very even.

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The market noise around this game and series has been very interesting.

OKC opened as a 2.5-point home favorite. We know from the first round that the Thunder's home-court advantage is worth a minimum of 4.5 points.

We also had Dallas open as the series favorite despite being the road team. This was a loud message from the market saying the Mavs are the better team, while the Thunder have home-court advantage.

However, we can rarely find rest and travel advantages in the playoffs because teams get on the same schedule as a series progresses.

I want to back the rest and travel spots for OKC here. The Thunder have also taken some sharp action for Game 1, and we can still grab a -3.5 in this spot.

The over has taken a lot of movement as well, but I believe it to be priced out, as it has moved four points since open.

Pick: Thunder -3.5