Nuggets vs Mavericks Odds, Picks & Predictions | NBA Betting Preview (Sunday, March 17)

Here's everything you need to know about Nuggets vs. Mavericks on Sunday, Mar. 17 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today's game.

Nikola Jokić and the Denver Nuggets opened as 3-point favorites over Luka Dončić and the Dallas Mavericks, with the total opening at 225.5. Obviously, both of those lines have moved on the Nuggets vs Mavericks odds.

Let's get to our Nuggets vs. Mavericks pick and Nuggets vs. Mavericks prediction.

Nuggets vs Mavs Picks & Predictions

The Nuggets have been on a roll post-All-Star break, as they’ve gone 11-1 and rank No. 2 in net rating (+13.3) over that span. They’ve clearly flipped a switch, and Jokić has been on a tear and is now a solid favorite to win his third MVP.

This will be a good matchup for Denver's offense considering the Mavericks don’t do a great job of defending the rim or defensive rebounding. They rank 25th in defensive rebound rate and 28th in FG% allowed at the rim. That is certainly an issue when going up against Jokić and this Nuggets offense that ranks ninth in rim rate on the season. Jokić should be able to have success against Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II in this spot.

I’d expect the Nuggets' offense to thrive in this matchup.

The Mavericks' offense ranks third in offensive rating (121.8) post-All-Star break while their defense is 27th in defensive rating (119.8). That has been the story of their season, as they rank fifth in adjusted offensive rating but just 23rd in defensive rating on the season, according to dunksandthrees.com.

This may be a tough matchup for Dallas' offense considering the Nuggets do a great job of preventing 3-point attempts, ranking second in opponent 3-point attempt rate allowed on the season. The Mavericks' offense is heavily reliant on generating quality 3s, as they rank second in offensive 3-point attempt rate on the season.

Dallas will need Dončić and Kyrie Irving to attack the rim if it wants to compete here.

I'd actually lean towards the Mavericks at plus money here considering this game means much more to them as they try to prove they are legitimate contenders in the West. I’d play Dallas on the moneyline down to +120.

Nuggets vs Mavs Pick: Mavericks ML (Play to +118)

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