Nuggets vs Lakers: Game 4 Prediction, Odds, Pick (Saturday, April 27)

Nuggets vs Lakers: Game 4 Prediction, Odds, Pick (Saturday, April 27) article feature image

Pictured: Michael Porter Jr. of the Nuggets and Rui Hachimura of the Lakers for Action Network’s odds, picks, and predictions for Game 4.

Nuggets vs Lakers Odds

Saturday, April 27
8:30 pm
Nuggets Odds
-110o / -110u
Lakers Odds
-110o / -110u
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

Here's everything you need to know about Nuggets vs. Lakers on Saturday, April 27 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today's game.

At some point, Lakers fans are going to have to wake up from this nightmare, right? The Nuggets' stretch of dominance over the Lakers can now fill a soccer pitch, as Denver has notched 11 straight wins over L.A.

It's not just the dominance, though — it's that so many of these games follow the same script. The Lakers take a lead, Denver decides to start trying, Denver storms back from a near-historical deficit to win. In Denver, in Los Angeles — it doesn't matter. The Nuggets just keep winning.

As of now, the market thinks the streak continues. The Nuggets are favored by three points, with the total coming in at 218. Using a bit of history, let's take a look at what to expect on Saturday night.

Over his 21 seasons of play, LeBron James has played in 54 playoff series over 17 postseasons. This will be just the fifth time he has faced a 3-0 deficit, with the wildest part of the stat being that this is now the second "repeat" 3-0 deficit among that group.

To clarify, the five instances are:

  • 2007 NBA Finals vs. San Antonio
  • 2017 NBA Finals vs. Golden State
  • 2018 NBA Finals vs. Golden State
  • 2023 Western Conference Finals vs. Denver
  • 2024 First Round vs. Denver.

As you can see, the list includes the first time James made the Finals, facing the KD Super Warriors back-to-back, and now two straight years running into these Nuggets.

That should give historical context of just how good Denver has been over the past two seasons.

For betting purposes, however, I want to focus on James' stat lines in those 3-0 deficit games. Here are his points/rebounds/assists lines in those games:

  • 24/6/10 on 30 FGA in 46 minutes (L)
  • 31/10/11 on 22 FGA in 41 minutes (W)
  • 23/7/8 on 13 FGA in 41 minutes (L)
  • 40/10/9 on 25 FGA in 48 minutes (L)

The first thing worth noting is that his teams are just 1-3 in these games. It makes sense — if your team has LeBron James down 3-0, you're a pretty good team.

What I think is more notable, though, is that he's averaging 29.5 points, 8.3 rebounds and 9.5 assists on 22.5 FGA in 44 minutes per game.

At times, the knock on LeBron can be that he can kind of just tap out and roll over in tough situations. That hasn't really been the case in these 3-0 spots, where hope is at its lowest. He often goes down swinging.

As such, I'm going to be looking at James' points + rebounds + assists over 43.5.

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James is averaging 26.3/6.7/9.7 (42.7 PRA) and cleared that number just once in these first three games — but that's not accounting for the clear minutes bump James receives in these games. He's averaging 40 minutes a game in this series but played basically the full 48 in their Game 4 loss last season.

The cherry on top is a point I brought up before this series even started. This season's Lakers are 7-1 when LeBron scores 35-plus this season, but he hasn't gotten there yet this series.

They do their best when he's forcing the issue, and I think he'll look to do so in a clear must-win game even if the long-range forecast for the Lakers is doom.

Nuggets vs Lakers

Betting Pick & Prediction

I lean toward taking the Nuggets to make it a casual 12 straight over the Lakers, but with Denver laying three, my best bet is instead to ride with James going down swinging once again. I'll take the over on his points + rebounds + assists.

Pick: LeBron James Over 43.5 PRA

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