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Detroit Pistons 2021 NBA Win Total Odds & Pick: Bet the Under on an Overhauled Roster

Detroit Pistons 2021 NBA Win Total Odds & Pick: Bet the Under on an Overhauled Roster article feature image

Chris Schwegler/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Jerami Grant #9 of the Detroit Pistons.

Check out this post for updated season win total and this post for my other 29 season win total picks.

Pistons Win Total Odds

Best Line
82-Game Projection
Over: 23 (William Hill) [Bet Now]
26 Wins
Under: 23.5 (FanDuel) [Bet Now]
27 Wins

The Case for the Over

Detroit had the biggest discrepancy between Pythagorean win percentage and actual last season. They should have been nine percentage points better in win percentage.

Killian Hayes is the most underrated top-10 pick of this year’s draft. His impact could be huge for the Pistons. They added a lot of size. We can joke about adding the four centers, but Detroit has depth and athleticism in droves.

Blake Griffin is maybe the most underrated All-Star talent in the league at this point. His injuries have been terrible, but at some point the man is going to have fortune smile upon his body. Griffin is so much more versatile at this point in his career. He can shoot, he can pass, he can score and drive and he can post.

Jerami Grant bet on himself and got paid. That kind of confidence can pay off. He showed in the playoffs with Denver that he can create on spot-ups off closeouts. The Pistons have bet heavily on what he can do.

This number is so low for the Pistons. It’s lower than their Pythagorean win percentage last year. Why would Detroit be worse than last season with all the pieces it has added and, presumably, Griffin back for the year?

The Case for the Under

Pistons roster last season:

  • Christian Wood (gone, free agency)
  • Andre Drummond (gone, traded)
  • Langston Galloway (gone, free agency)
  • Tony Snell (gone, traded)
  • Derrick Rose (still on roster)
  • Bruce Brown (gone, traded)
  • Luke Kennard (gone, traded)

So you can take the Pythagorean win percentage last year and toss it, because all the players that made them look better than their record are gone.

Grant has been discussed among league sources as maybe the worst signing of the offseason. It basically comes down to Detroit general manager “Troy Weaver believes in Grant, going back to his time at Syracuse.”

And maybe Weaver’s right. He is known far and wide as a really smart basketball guy. But that’s a lot to ask of Grant.

Bear in mind that Grant and Mason Plumlee, who the Pistons gave a combined $85 million to this offseason, were both bench players in the regular season last year. Grant was slated to take over the starting spot for Denver this year, but last year in the regular season, his numbers were poor in terms of impact; Denver was better with him on the bench. Now, there’s context there and the Nuggets needed him in the playoffs. But banking on him to be a star is a lot.

Rookie point guard in Hayes. Warning. Often injured superstar in Griffin. Warning. Unproven and young roster. Warning.

There will be bad teams this season. Detroit is likely to be one of them.

Detroit Pistons Win Total Bet

I can’t be emphatic about this one, because the Pistons entire approach has been counterintuitive. “We’re going to overpay for non-dominant big men while drafting a rookie point guard (who has experience in Europe), and keep Blake Griffin instead of maximizing his trade value and rebuilding.

This is in the category of “so crazy it just might work.” Now, usually, it doesn’t. It’s also not uncommon for executives like Weaver in their first time as primary decision maker to make early missteps before coming to realizations latter.

I’m not wild about this pick, but I do like the under (I was able to find under 24, but the line has moved half a point since).

[Bet now at FanDuel and get a $1,000 risk-free bet.]

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