The Golden State Warriors (36-38) and Denver Nuggets (47-28) will face off in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 10:00 p.m. ET from Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado. The game will broadcast live on NBC and Peacock.
The Nuggets are 12.5-point favorites over the Warriors on the spread (Nuggets -12.5), with the over/under set at 239.5 total points. Denver is a -625 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Golden State is +455 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Warriors vs. Nuggets predictions and NBA picks for Sunday, March 29.
Warriors vs Nuggets Prediction, Pick
- Warriors vs Nuggets pick: Warriors Team Total Over 112.5 (-110)
My Nugget vs. Warriors best bet is on Golden State to score over 112.5 points. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Warriors vs Nuggets Odds
| Warriors Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+12.5 -115 | 239.5 -105o / -115u | +455 |
| Nuggets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-12.5 -105 | 239.5 -105o / -115u | -625 |
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Warriors vs Nuggets NBA Preview
Although this year hasn't gone as expected for the Warriors, they're still a lock to play beyond the 82 games once the regular season concludes. That's because the Warriors can finish no worse than 10th in the conference, since the bottom five teams are already eliminated from playoff contention.
At 36-38, Golden State sits a half-game behind the ninth-seeded Trail Blazers while trailing the seventh-seeded Suns by five games — and given that the sixth-seeded Rockets are 8.5 games in front of the Warriors, Golden State's playoff path will have to come through the Play-In Tournament.
Even with its struggles, Golden State would be a difficult challenge for any opponent in a one-off play-in game. ESPN's Relative Percent Index projects the Warriors' record should be closer to 38-36. This projection does align with their TeamRankings luck rating, which sits at -2.3.
Injuries have decimated the Warriors, as Jimmy Butler and Moses Moody are both out for the season. Golden State's best player, Stephen Curry, is also sidelined with a knee injury that's kept him out since late January.
The good news is that Curry could return to the team once the calendar turns to April.
Despite all these injuries, Warriors head coach Steve Kerr has managed to keep his team somewhat respectable in the standings. He has a knack for getting the best out of marginal players who are not your typical superstars or household names.
For example, Gui Santos, a second-round pick in 2022 (No. 55), scored a career-high 31 points this week and followed that performance up with a 27-point effort.
Santos went 7-for-13 from beyond the arc in those games, as he offers another perimeter threat to a team that already ranks second in attempts (42.4) per game and fourth in field goals (15.4).
Perimeter defense is something the Nuggets could struggle with on Sunday. They allow the eighth-highest 3-point attempts (38.5) and rank 27th (14.6) in contested 3-pointers.
As good as the Nuggets have been all season, they rank in the bottom third defensively, allowing 116.2 points per 100 possessions.
This is a Denver team that will give the opposition chances. This week at home, they faced the Jazz and the Mavericks, two of the worst teams in the conference, and still allowed 129 and 135 points in those games.
Those numbers point to another high-scoring affair, with the total bet up to 238.5 after opening at 232.5.
Warriors vs Nuggets Predictions, Betting Analysis
The Warriors and Nuggets are the two most profitable teams this season for over bettors. Denver has a 47-28 (62.7%) mark, while Golden State sits at 45-29 (60.8%).
Given how both teams like to run their offenses, it's difficult to envision a scenario where we don't get a ton of points on the board.
Although the Warriors are heavy underdogs at +12.5, this matchup doesn't seem to be correlated with the spread or total. In other words, a Nuggets win by margin doesn't necessarily preclude the Warriors from getting their share of points.
And if we consider the other outcome of the Warriors pulling off an upset, their likeliest path would be to hang a big number and outscore the Nuggets' powerful offense.
Therefore, with such a high total and point spread, the bookmakers are expecting the Nuggets to do much of the heavy lifting, meaning the Warriors are somewhat overlooked when it comes to their team total of 112.5.
My model projects this number should be closer to 115, giving me enough of an edge to back the Warriors at the current price.
Pick: Warriors Team Total Over 112.5 (-110)
