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The MVP market is tough to handicap this season. Between the 65-game threshold, injury concerns, and the reality of an aging superstar tier, finding value requires threading the needle.
There are basic parameters that almost always hold up: Don’t pick them before they’re 22. Don’t pick them after they’re 29. You have to put up buckets—every winner except Nikola Jokic going back to 2019 has averaged at least 30 points per game — and typically, you need to be a top-three seed.
Let's get into our NBA MVP predictions and picks for the 2026-27 season.
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NBA MVP Predictions, Picks, Odds
Cade Cunningham, Pistons (+2200)
By Matt Moore
My official Best Bet for MVP is Cade Cunningham. It’s interesting because, basically, the Pistons kept winning and killed everyone on their way to 60 wins last season, and they still never really got credit in the market.
When I look specifically at the roster Detroit has put around him, the environment is ripe for Cade to take an MVP leap.
John Collins may not be as good of an on-ball player as Tobias Harris, but he is a better defender, a better corner three-point shooter, and a better spacer. He knows exactly how to space around an isolation engine like Cade because he did it for years in Atlanta with Trae Young.
Detroit also added Isaiah Joe to the bench. Now, you can deploy a lineup featuring Cunningham, Duncan Robinson, and Joe. Sure, you can attack that roster defensively, but opponents still have to deal with the physicality of Jalen Duren, Ausar Thompson, Paul Reed, and Ron Holland—who casually dropped seven steals + blocks in his first preseason game.
I think this Pistons team is going to win upwards of 55-plus games. I think they’ll be better balanced, and you know what happens when they’re balanced? Cade racks up assists. It is not going to shock me if he comes in and averages 28 points, 8 rebounds, and 8 assists.
Cunningham has the passing, the rebounding, and the athleticism, and he's arguably a better perimeter defender than anyone else in this tier. I buy the Pistons, which means I am also buying Cade to win MVP at 22-1.
Pick: Cade Cunningham (+2200)
Jayson Tatum, Celtics (+2000)
This is a narrative-based award, and sometimes the narrative is pretty crystal clear. Jayson Tatum has a chance to do what Jaylen Brown wasn't able to fully accomplish last year, which is succeed at an elite level without the other one around.
If the Celtics are the best team in the East—which they have every opportunity to be—Tatum’s numbers are going to get a huge boost simply because he isn’t sharing the ball with Brown anymore.
Tatum is going to get way more credit this year than Brown ever received. A lot of that comes down to efficiency and advanced stats. The advanced metrics don't exactly like Jaylen Brown, but they absolutely love Tatum.
Last season, Tatum posted a stellar +4.4 EPM compared to Brown’s +1.3. In fact, the Celtics were technically better when Brown was off the court by some metrics.
Tatum is the better player; that’s not an opinion, it’s a statistical fact. Brown turns the ball over a lot and doesn't have elite vision.
Tatum has an opportunity to truly assert himself as one of the top-tier elite stars from a statistical perspective this season. We already view him that way through the lens of what a "star" is, but statistically, he has plenty of runway to get there this season. At 20-1, this bet is staring me right in the face.
Pick: Jayson Tatum (+2000)
Luka Doncic, Lakers (+550)
By Matt Moore
I am adding Luka Doncic to my portfolio, specifically paired alongside a Lakers regular-season win total Under.
Luka has been the preseason favorite multiple times and has never won the award. But if you think this Lakers roster makes sense and they are going to win 50-plus games, there is tremendous value here.
I am lower on the roster and don't think they'll hit 50 wins, but I simply cannot say Doncic at +550 is a bad bet.
When you calculate age, multiplied by production, multiplied by stats, multiplied by the "Lakers bump," the math points to Luka.
If the Lakers pop out and start the season 10-2, the value is going to completely vanish. He will shoot to the top of the list and sit at -125 by Christmas.
It is going to be pretty easy for Doncic to win this award if the team succeeds. I want to see how they look first, but if you have any faith in Los Angeles this year, this is the play.
Pick: Luka Doncic (+550)
Cooper Flagg, Mavericks (+15000)
I know this breaks one of our established rules, but we had a guy break some rules last year, too, and I am going to go back to the well. I am playing Cooper Flagg as a 150-1 long shot.
If we are trying to identify which young player could catapult his team and take a massive leap, look at Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs last year for reference. San Antonio was 200-1 to win the title before the season and ended up making a championship run.
When these monumental leaps happen with all-time great talents, they happen dramatically. Among all the young players in the league, Flagg has the best chance to be that guy.
The Dallas roster should be significantly better with a healthy Kyrie Irving returning, and Flagg's production is already terrifying. He averaged 21 points, nearly 7 rebounds, and 4.5 assists on just south of 55% true shooting.
If you look at NBA history, the only rookies to ever average 18 points, 6 rebounds, and 4 assists on 55% true shooting are Oscar Robertson, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Magic Johnson, Michael Jordan — and now, Cooper Flagg. That is an absurd list.
With Dusty May coming in to coach, we don't have a history to analyze exactly what those sets will look like. But while some are lower on the Mavericks, I bet their win total Over at 33.5. If the Mavs hit their 95th-percentile outcome—around 48 wins—and Flagg takes a big step forward, he is going to force his way into the MVP conversation.
Pick: Cooper Flagg (+15000)
Tyrese Haliburton, Pacers (+15000)
My other long shot target is Tyrese Haliburton. The Pacers dropped off dramatically without him, and some of that was by design. But again, we are talking about a narrative-based award.
It would be easy to build an MVP case if the Pacers simply put it all back together and everything clicks right away this season. If Indiana secures a top-three seed in the Eastern Conference—which is not a wildly crazy thing to suggest—Haliburton is likely the unquestioned engine driving that success.
Haliburton checks all the critical boxes: he's an impact player, he's clutch, and his game is multifaceted with elite scoring and assisting. He's going to produce those highlight-reel moments that naturally stick in the heads of voters.
The 65-game threshold is a concern given his recent injury history, but at 150-1, you are paying for that exact risk. I can't make a compelling case for any of the other long shot options in the same way I can make a case for Haliburton.
Pick: Tyrese Haliburton (+15000)
