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Sixth Man of the Year was a tough market to crack last season. Historically, we kind of know what this looks like: it’s typically scoring guards coming off the bench for the majority of the season, and you don't necessarily need to be a high-impact defender or advanced metrics darling.
Recently, though, we've seen a dip in the raw point totals required to win as teams lean more heavily on cohesive bench units rather than singular isolation scorers.
Even still, finding the right talent in the right role is the key to unlocking this market. Let's break down our NBA Six Man of the Year predictions and picks for this season.
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NBA Sixth Man of the Year Predictions, Picks
Ace Bailey, Jazz (+3000)
By Matt Moore
I am aiming for longer numbers in this market, and I absolutely love Ace Bailey at 30-1. I was skeptical of him coming out of college because of the attitude concerns and the reports that he didn't want to go to Utah. I never want to deal with those headaches.
But, he landed in Utah, and guess what? The kid kept his head down, didn't start, came off the bench while the team tanked its face off, and just put in the work to get better.
When I saw him in Denver late last year, it felt like he had been hit with gamma radiation like the Hulk and grown two sizes. I just saw him again up close and personal in Boulder, and the kid is in fantastic shape.
Bailey has the elite, green-light ability to grab a contested offensive rebound and immediately turn around to hit a fadeaway jumper. The number of guys in this league who can reliably do that is very small.
I think it's entirely possible Bailey winds up scoring 18 or 19 points per game off the bench this year. He has that caliber of prospect talent, size, and athleticism, and he's doing it for a Jazz team that I think will be a playoff contender.
Bailey at +3000 is my best bet for Sixth Man.
Pick: Ace Bailey (+3000)
Dylan Harper, Spurs (+750)
By Jim Turvey
To me, this is a strange market, but a really nice opportunity to essentially "set it and forget it" at the top of the board. Dylan Harper is one of two phenomenal candidates sitting at the top that I want action on.
I feel good about Harper's games played and his bench status. The conversation right now sounds like he might not really want to be on the bench, but as a second-year player operating alongside De'Aaron Fox, I am confident they are going to keep him in that reserve role to start.
The Spurs are a franchise that looks at things in centuries, not minutes. They aren't going to overreact to a young player's demands. No franchise embodies the elite bench-player role better than San Antonio did with Manu Ginobili during their championship runs.
I don't think Harper stays on the bench his whole career, but it's fair to ask him to do it in year two. He will slot in and get 10 to 15 starts when guys miss time—which is actually a sneaky good asset for this award—but I don't see him cracking that dangerous 40-start mark that disqualifies you.
Pick: Dylan Harper (+750)
Ajay Mitchell, Thunder (+600)
By Jim Turvey
Ajay Mitchell is the other half of my "set it and forget it" portfolio at the top of this board. He has the shorter odds of the two, and I'm confident that he will coming off the bench for the vast majority of the year.
If you were going to try and keep his baseline stats down, you would start him alongside Shai Gilgeous-Alexander where there is tons of usage being eaten up. But as a bench player, Mitchell is going to be the guy that creates and absorbs a massive amount of usage for this second unit.
Mitchell started 16 games last season, well under the threshold to disqualify him. He is just really good, and putting him in a Thunder offense that seems much more offensive-minded right now makes this a phenomenal setup.
If he stays healthy (and stays on the bench), Mitchell should be capable of producing the numbers necessary to take home this hardware.
Pick: Ajay Mitchell (+600)
