The Los Angeles Lakers (50-27) and Dallas Mavericks (24-53) will meet in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET from the American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas. The game will broadcast live on NBC and Peacock.
The Lakers are 1.5-point favorites over the Mavericks on the spread (Lakers -1.5), with the over/under set at 232.5 total points. Los Angeles is a -122 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Dallas is -102 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Lakers vs. Mavericks predictions and NBA picks for Sunday, April 5.
Lakers vs Mavericks Prediction, Pick
- Lakers vs Mavericks pick: Luke Kennard Over 12.5 Points (-115)
My Mavericks vs. Lakers best bet is on Luke Kennard to score over 12.5 points. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Lakers vs Mavericks Odds
| Lakers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 232.5 -115o / -105u | -122 |
| Mavericks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 232.5 -115o / -105u | +102 |
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Lakers vs Mavericks NBA Preview
The Lakers travel to Dallas tonight for a matchup that looks drastically different than it did on the calendar a few weeks ago.
While fans might be disappointed that Luka Doncic (hamstring) and Austin Reaves (oblique) are both sidelined for the Lakers, the absence of these high-usage stars creates a massive vacuum in the betting market. Specifically, we are targeting Luke Kennard Over 12.5 Points as the premier value play of the night.
Kennard has operated as a specialized fourth option for much of the season, but his efficiency spikes when the primary creators sit. In 128 minutes this season with both Luka and Reaves off the floor, Kennard’s usage rate jumps north of 20 percent.
For a player who shoots nearly 49% from beyond the arc, that kind of increased volume makes a 12.5-point total look too low.
Tonight's matchup against Dallas provides the perfect backdrop for him to produce, too.
The Mavericks have largely shifted into tanking mode, currently sporting a defensive rating of 116.0 (24th in the NBA). They have struggled all year to contain perimeter shooters, and without a cohesive defensive scheme to chase him off the line, Kennard should see the cleanest looks he’s had all month.
Dallas recently allowed 138 points to Orlando, proving the Mavericks have little interest in high-intensity perimeter defense at this stage of the season.
Lakers vs Mavericks Predictions, Betting Analysis
We’ve already seen what Kennard can do when given the green light. Just last week, he exploded for 19 points in only 23 minutes against Washington, showing that he doesn't need heavy minutes to clear this threshold if the shot is falling.
Historically, Kennard has thrived in Dallas; in a meeting earlier this season, he put up 9 points and 7 rebounds in just 17 minutes of action. With his playing time expected to push toward the 30-minute mark tonight, the math heavily favors the over.
The Lakers are still fighting to protect their No. 3 seed from a surging Rockets team, while Dallas is eyeing the lottery.
Expect Los Angeles to lean on Kennard’s shooting to stabilize an offense missing its two best playmakers.
Between the projected usage spike and the porous Mavericks' defense, Kennard is in a prime position to clear this line tonight.
Pick: Luke Kennard Over 12.5 Points (-115)
