Heat vs Cavaliers Prediction, Picks Today | Wednesday, Nov. 22

Here's everything you need to know about Heat vs Cavaliers with our expertHeat vs Cavaliers prediction and picks today on Wednesday, Nov. 22.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are riding high on Wednesday, coming off a momentous win in Philly over the mighty Sixers without star Donovan Mitchell. With the injury situation once again muddy on the second night of a back-to-back, will Cleveland's luck run out against a strong Heat team?

Let's get to our Heat vs Cavaliers prediction and pick.

The Heat enter the day the winners of eight games in their last nine tries, but the Cavaliers stand to be one of the toughest tests for Miami in weeks given who it has run through. The team has knocked off the Wizards, Grizzlies, Nets, Hornets, Bulls (twice), Spurs and Hawks — with just the Lakers posing the only real threat to Miami.

Because of that, it's not surprising to see this team enter with just 7.1 expected wins according to Cleaning the Glass, along with some middling numbers. The Heat are in the bottom third of the league when it comes to rebounding and 18th in offense, relying on their ninth-ranked defense to win games. Even with that, though, we've mentioned that the Heat have run into plenty of weak offenses over the last couple of weeks, and Miami's also been weak inside with a 26th-ranked 69.8% field goal percentage allowed at the rim this year.

On the injury front, the Heat will remain without Tyler Herro and Kevin Love here, but aside from that there are no real concerns with Bam Adebayo entering the contest as probable. Miami has had a day to rest following a win in Chicago and didn't need to travel all that far to Cleveland.

The Cavaliers are on a little run of their own, winning four in a row including two over the Sixers and Nuggets in recent days. Following a similar pattern from last season — and a similar one to their opponents on Wednesday — this team has hunkered down in the defensive halfcourt, ranking sixth in points allowed per play in that regard, and has played slow-paced basketball where offense is at a premium.

It could be even tougher to come by against Miami considering the lengthy injury report we're sure to see here. Donovan Mitchell was absent from Tuesday's win over Philly and is expected to be a game-time decision here. Caris LeVert has also been out for the last two games, joining Isaac Okoro and Ty Jerome on the bench. Even in the win on Tuesday, Cleveland posted just a 111.9 offensive rating against a pretty average Sixers defense.

This one will likely come down to whether or not the Cavaliers can score at the rim, considering they rank fourth in shot frequency inside of four feet. Miami is just 26th in that regard and should offer Cleveland some hope on that end without the scoring output from its guards

While neither of these teams are tremendous at rebounding the basketball, the Cavaliers have been marginally better this season. The Heat are operating with an undersized frontcourt led by Adebayo, and while he can contribute on the offensive end and in one-on-one matchups, he's not a rim protector. Cleveland has been one of the best in the league at scoring in and around the restricted area, and its excellent interior defense is going to make life a living hell on Adebayo.

The Heat have gotten contributions from the likes of Duncan Robinson and Kyle Lowry — even Jimmy Butler — from beyond the arc, and the Cavaliers have indeed struggled to defend the 3 this year. With that said, I think this Heat team is overachieving at the moment, failing to face much competition over the last couple of weeks, and while Cleveland may be tired after a big win over Philly it should still have plenty to say on the defensive end here and win this game.

Pick: Cavaliers +2.5