Minnesota Timberwolves 2021 NBA Win Total Odds & Pick: Fade the Wolves In the Difficult West

Minnesota Timberwolves 2021 NBA Win Total Odds & Pick: Fade the Wolves In the Difficult West article feature image
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Jordan Johnson/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Karl-Anthony Towns #32 of the Minnesota Timberwolves.

Check out this post for updated season win total and this post for my other 29 season win total picks.

Timberwolves Win Total Odds

Best Line
82-Game Projection
Over: 28.5 (PointsBet) [Bet Now]
32 Wins
Under: 29.5 (FanDuel) [Bet Now]
34 Wins

The Case for the Over

Sheer talent and fit. The Wolves to start the season in 2019-20 were ill-suited for the basketball they wanted to play. Head coach Ryan Saunders and GM Gersson Rosas wanted a 3-point volume approach. Maybe not Houston level, but Rockets-lite.

Minnesota has mid-range shooters and clunky frontcourt players.

At the deadline last season, the Timberwolves made several noteworthy moves, adding D’Angelo Russell in exchange for Andrew Wiggins and shipping out Robert Covington and Gorgui Dieng.

The move worked … on the offensive end. The Wolves improved by three points per 100 possessions in their Offensive Rating. The defense imploded, averaging 117 over the few games before play was suspension. But the team had aligned towards its goal.

Gifted with the No. 1 pick, Minnesota added Anthony Edwards.

The Wolves enter the season with Russell alongside one of the most talented players in the league in Karl-Anthony Towns, and they have a win total that only requires 30 victories to easily clear the over.

Towns and Russell are two star-level players, and that should be good enough for a baseline near the over.

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The Case for the Under

So did you catch what I said about that 117 Defensive Rating? That’s not just bad, that’s nightmarish. That’s “fish in the microwave, left for eight hours” horrendous.

For comparison, the Mavericks set the all-time record for Offensive Rating with 115. So the Wolves, after trading for Russell, made every team score like it was the greatest offense of all time per 100 possessions … plus two points.

Towns has been through a lot this year, and I think it’s pretty understandable if he’s still trying to wrap his head around all the trauma he’s been through. He’s had more important things than basketball in his life happen in his life.

Russell has yet to prove he can make a team better when he’s on the floor. Lots of talent, good numbers, cool plays … very little positive impact.

Malik Beasley may miss time due to legal issues. The rest of the roster is one of the youngest in the league.

Bringing back Ricky Rubio seems like a nostalgia play more than anything, and the presence of Rubio, Ed Davis and Josh Okogie is not enough to offset all the negative defensive players.

Finally, there’s the number. The Wolves have the fourth-biggest jump from last year to this season based on win percentage behind the Nets, Hawks and Warriors. Two of those teams get at least one All-NBA player back. The Wolves do not.

Wins for other teams in the Western Conference have to come from somewhere. They’ll come from Minnesota.

Minnesota Timberwolves Win Total Bet

Under. I can’t find any reason why this team should jump other than names on the marquee. Now, if everything clicks? I mean, absolutely everything? This is a playoff team.

You can hedge with the Wolves as a play-in team at +240 if you find yourself interested. The odds of them reaching sixth or better are low.

[Bet now at FanDuel and get a $1,000 risk-free bet.]

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