NBA Best Bets Today | Our 7 Expert Picks for Thursday, February 29

Friday Jr. has arrived and there's quite a lot for NBA fans to look forward to with LeBron inching closer to the 40K milestone to an NBA Finals rematch between the Heat and Nuggets. So don't we got you covered with everything else in between as well with player props, totals, and more.

Check out what our writers have in store with seven of our NBA best bets for Thursday's eight-game slate below.

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NBA Best Bets Today | Thursday, Feb. 29

By Joe Dellera

Wemby vs Chet Part III.

One thing about Victor is he’s the ultimate competitor and he will absolutely get up with some extra effort for this clash between his sole competition for the Rookie of the Year Award.

Wembanyama has been a monster this season and is averaging a 20 point double double. In his last matchup against Chet and OKC he racked up 24 points and 12 rebounds for 36 PR. While he had some difficult scoring in their first matchup, it wasn’t due to a lack of volume and he had taken 15 and 18 FGA in those two games.

This is an excellent Pace Up spot for both teams with the Spurs (3rd) and the Thunder (9th) playing at Top 10 Paces in the league.

There is a 32.5 (-140) in the market but I prefer this spot with lower juice in what I view as a favorable matchup against an Oklahoma City team that has struggled to defend dominant big men this season.

Pick: Victor Wembanyama over 33.5 PR

By Jim Turvey

The Suns play host to the Rockets on Thursday night, and they should be able to get off to a fast start.

The Suns are the third-best team by both net rating (+7.0) and ATS record (34-23-1, +13.6% ROI), while the Rockets are -1.0 by net rating in the first half (compared to +0.9 in the second half), and the split gets even noticeable when they are away from the Toyota Center.

On the road, they have a -12.7 first half net rating, which has resulted in a 9-18-1 ATS record in road first halves this season.

The Rockets have been struggling as a whole of late, with the 23rd ranked spread differential in the past two weeks, per Cleaning the Glass, as they have basically slipped out of the play-in race. Phoenix, on the other hand, should be fully motivated to come out hot, as they are in the midst of that big cluster in the West, and they know they have struggled to close games out, so getting out to an early lead will be essential.

Pick: Suns First Half -4.5

By Chris Baker

Jalen Brunson is questionable so monitor the injury report as he is the most valuable player to the Knicks offense. Hartenstein being back will be a huge boost to their offensive rebounding effort and defense. I-Hart should be able to punish some of these smaller Warrior lineups where they like to play Draymond Green at the 5. Looneys minutes have been trending down so that should be a massive edge for the Knicks. The Warriors rank in the 35th percentile of defensive rebound rate with Looney off the court allowing an offensive rebound on 27.7% of opponent shot attempts. The knicks are the #1 offensive rebounding team in the NBA this season.

Warriors will have an edge behind the arc where the Knicks D ranks 23rd in opponent three point attempt rate allowed while the Dubs rank 5th in offensive three point attempt rate. Warriors should have some success offensively going small and spacing bigs like Achiuwa and Hartenstein out away from the rim.

Would love the over at less than 225 if Brunson is officially ruled in or probable.

Pick: Over 223.5

By Bryan Fonseca

As I posted on Twitter, and said on Green Dot Daily yesterday, it's Jimmy Butler SZN.

The man cares and it's time to play his overs until the books adjust.

Now I know this isn't a great match-up for the Heat, who haven't won a regular season game in Denver since 2016 — though they did beat them in Game 2 of the NBA Finals last year — but Jimmy Butler is engaged, and when he is, that means the stocks are coming. Butler has gotten over 1.5 stocks in his last five straight games. He's gotten it with steals alone — you can play Jimmy to get 2+ steals at plus odds, too.

I think this number should be listed at 2.5 given his recent defensive play, and even then, he's over in four straight.

When he's on, he's the Ed Reed of the NBA, filling passing lanes better than most of the league. I'm not sure if the Heat win tonight even with Denver on the second of a back-to-back, but I expect another strong Butler outing.

Pick: Jimmy Butler over 1.5 steals + blocks (-125)

By Michael Arinze

This is a classic letdown spot for the Los Angeles Lakers after rallying from a 21-point deficit in the fourth quarter to beat the Clippers 116-112.

LeBron James proved yet again that age is just a number as the 39-year-old scored 19 of 34 points in the final 12 minutes of the game. His 19 points were enough to outscore the Clippers, who managed only 16 points in the quarter.

In addition to leading the Lakers in scoring, James played the most minutes on his team with 37.

And while he continues to turn back the clock on Father Time, playing the second leg of a back-to-back could leave him a bit weary against the Wizards on Thursday night.

However, we’d generally expect the Lakers to rest their veteran players in these back-to-back spots. Thus, perhaps it’s no surprise that according to our Action Labs database, the Lakers are only 3-8 against the spread (ATS) in this spot.

But if we focus solely on the games the market expects the Lakers to win as favorites, their ATS mark worsens to 0-4.

Although the Wizards are tied for the fewest wins of the year (nine), their 27-29-2 ATS record is even better than that of the Lakers (28-33).

I’ll trust the road dogs to do enough to keep this game inside the number but I wouldn't play it any lower than +9.

Pick: Wizards +9.5 (-108)

By Joe Dellera

It’s a NBA Finals rematch tonight with the Miami Heat visiting the Denver Nuggets who just whipped the Kings last night.

One player that I expect to turn up the Heat is Jimmy Butler.

Butler has been tremendous over his last few games out of the All-Star Break with 38 and 35 PRA. This aligns with his post-ASB numbers from last season where he averaged 25.6 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 5.9 assists per game.

The setting was different in the Finals, but Jimmy has exceeded 29.5 PRA in 5/7 games vs the Nuggets over the past few seasons while averaging 35.7 per game.

I expect Jimmy to show up tonight and put forward a well rounded effort while exceeding 29.5 PRA.

Pick: Jimmy Butler over 29.5 PRA

By Chris Baker

Horrible matchup for the Wizards defense as they rank bottom-10 in rim rate allowed and dead-last in rim FG% (71.5%) allowed to their opponents. The Lakers have the 3rd highest rim rate and 2nd highest FG% (71.0%) at the rim this season. The Wizards interior defense has only gotten worse since trading away their best defender Daniel Gafford. Additionally, their 2nd and 3rd best defenders Deni Avdjia and Bilal Coulibaly are questionable and out for this one. This should be an easy 30-ball for Anthony Davis and the Lakers team total at 126.5 is a good line by Vegas.

The Wizards have been playing at a hyper-speed pace since returning from the All-star break but they’ve been going under their totals due to complete offensive inefficiency and a complete inability to make shots. If you believe that they can shoot just average in a game you should be betting their over because they are definitely not playing defense as currently constructed.

We have the #1 pace team Wizards going up against the #6 Pace team and the Lakers just have a massive edge down-low with AD. I like this over up to 244.

Pick: Over 242