Wake and Rake: Warriors-Cavs Game 4 Attracting Sneaky Wiseguy Action

Wake and Rake: Warriors-Cavs Game 4 Attracting Sneaky Wiseguy Action article feature image
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Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports Pictured: Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry celebrates with forward Kevin Durant

The Highlights

  • The total for tonight’s Warriors-Cavaliers Game 4 opened at 216.
  • While the total remains at 216, professionals have been quietly betting the under.
  • Over money from recreational bettors in such a high-profile game has helped sportsbooks balance their action, keeping the current number close to the opener.

It’s Game 4 of the NBA Finals on a Friday night. This matchup will have a huge television audience as fans tune in to see if Golden State can pull off the sweep while also drawing a massive handle from bettors getting down on possibly the final NBA game of the 2017-18 season.

 

With oddsmakers needing to account for so much attention from public bettors, the over/under for tonight’s game has ping-ponged based on sharp and recreational bettors consistently playing opposite sides of this total.

Using the tools available in Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro membership, I’ve broken down which side is attracting attention from professional bettors for Game 4 of the NBA Finals.

The total for tonight’s game opened at 216 and considering the number is still at 216, it seems as if it’s been a quiet couple of days with this over/under.

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However, a look at The Action Nework’s public betting data reveals that while 70% of tickets are on the over, 82% of actual dollars wagered have come in on the under.

In addition, Sports Insights’ Bet Signals, which track sharp action in real time across the betting market, triggered two Reverse Line Moves on the under.

So, if so much sharp action has come in on the under, why hasn’t the line budged?

It has, most just haven’t noticed. As recently as this morning, the total dipped to 215 before ticking back up to 215.5 at most books and 216.

Why? Oddsmakers know over money is going to show up today from recreational bettors, who will continue to bet the over right until tipoff. And should sportsbooks be forced to increase the total in response, don’t be surprised to see professional bettors continually buying back the value on the under.


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