NBA First Basket Prop Pick: Jaylen Brown Has a Favorable Matchup in Thunder vs. Celtics (November 14)

NBA First Basket will break down some of his favorite NBA plays of the day here, and will track all his bets in The Action Network app.

Thunder vs.

Boston Celtics

Jaylen Brown | Al Horford

The Boston Celtics host the Oklahoma City Thunder Monday evening at TD Garden in the featured matchup of the night on NBA TV. Al Horford (62% opening-tip win rate) will likely be taking on Aleksej Pokusevski (0% win rate) for the tip off. OKC rotates starting multiple guys at center, but they are all about equally as bad at winning opening tip-offs.

The Celtics led the league in scoring first last season, hitting the first basket 63% of the time. The Thunder ranked last in the league at 35%. Both teams have continued with similar trends this season.

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The Thunder have allowed the opposing center or shooting guard to score first 62% of the time this season. Both teams frequently change their lineups, so we don't really know who is starting at shooting guard for Boston tonight — it could be either Derrick White or Jaylen Brown.

I like Horford or Brown to score first tonight based on the weaknesses in the Thunder defense. Brown was the league leader at scoring first last season.  Horford was a solid first scorer as well, although he hasn't been in the mix as much this season.

The combined odds are lower here than I normally like to play, but we rarely see an opportunity where one team has a 90% chance to win the tip-off, which makes the odds worth it tonight.

The Pick: Brown (+390, 0.7 units) — Play down to +320 | Horford (+900, 0.3u) — Play down to +700

Thunder vs. Celtics First Basket Data

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