NBA First Basket Prop Pick: Bet Zion Williamson, Herb Jones in Thunder vs. Pelicans (November 28)

NBA First Basket will break down some of his favorite NBA plays of the day here, and will track all his bets in The Action Network app.

Thunder vs.

Pelicans

Zion Williamson | Herb Jones

The Oklahoma City Thunder travel south to New Orleans to take on the Pelicans Monday night. Jonas Valanciunas (42% opening-tip win rate this season) will jump for the Pelicans. Either Aleksej Pokusevski (25% win rate) or Jeremiah Robinson-Earl (22% win rate) will jump for the the Thunder. Valanciunas has not faced either in an opening tip-off, but should have the advantage either way.

The Pelicans are scoring first 63% of the time this season, which is well above league average. They will be without C.J. McCollum and Brandon Ingram (doubtful with a sprained toe) tonight, which means their other three starters will likely see their value go up. Herb Jones has taken the first shot attempt for the Pelicans in four of the last six games. He has also made the first team field goal in four of the last 10 games.

The Thunder score first just 40% of the time this season, and that mainly appears to be a result of their inability to win tip-offs. The Thunder have allowed opposing teams' center, power forward, or shooting guard to score the first field goal in 80% of games.

That data would point to either Valanciunas, Zion Williamson or Jones to score first in this matchup. I'll take the hot hand in Jones (BetRivers/Barstool) and will pair that him with Williamson (FanDuel) for my plays tonight.

The Pick: Herb Jones +850, 0.4 units (down to +650) | Zion Williamson +400, 0.6 units (play down to +325)

Thunder vs. Pelicans First Basket Data

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