NBA Odds & Best Bets: Our Picks for Saturday, Including 76ers vs. Bucks & Raptors vs. Wizards
Adam Glanzman/Getty Images. Pictured: Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Friday's NBA slate featured 10 games, and with six games on Saturday, it isn't slowing down much.
That means our staff has some best bets to share. Our NBA writers came through with picks for an early Raptors vs. Wizards game at 5 p.m. ET, along with a battle of Eastern Conference behemoths in 76ers vs. Bucks.
Check out all of our best bets for Saturday's NBA slate below.
NBA Odds & Picks
Raptors vs. Wizards
Andrew O'Connor-Watts: Things should slow down for the Raptors and Wizards tonight.
They’re playing again after matching up Thursday in a 119-108 win for Washington. The Wizards covered, and the game went over the total of 221.5. But there are a few reasons I like the under tonight.
The Wizards are an average 3-point shooting team. They rank 16th in 3-point percentage on the season (35.9%) but shot 14-of-30 (46.7%) on Thursday. I expect some regression there.
On the other side, the Raptors shot uncharacteristically well from the free throw line (17-of-17), compared to their 78.1% season average (18th). I expect them to shoot worse tonight.
We’re also talking about two teams that like to slow the game down. Both are bottom-10 teams in pace and offensive possession length, according to Dunks and Threes.
A few trends also point to an under. The last two Wizards games have gone over, but the previous four went under. Meanwhile, the under is 11-4-1 in the last 16 Wizards games when they're playing on one day of rest. Raptors games are 4-1 to the under overall and 5-1 in the last six games following a loss of 10 or more.
These teams also fit a system I made on Bet Labs fading the over with two teams that aren’t known for defense:
I bet this at 222.5 and would bet it down to 220.5
Pick: Under 222.5 |
76ers vs. Bucks
Austin Wang: Tonight's marquee matchup features the Milwaukee Bucks, winner of 16 straight games, hosting the Philadelphia 76ers in a battle of Eastern Conference powerhouses.
The 76ers are on the third game of a five-game road trip and are now playing their third game in four nights with the Pacers on deck next. Fatigue could be a factor for Philly.
The Bucks, who own the league's best Defensive Rating, are on the first game of a back-to-back and could be conserving some of their energy for tomorrow's game.
Matchups between two elite conference teams (.600 win percentage or greater) post-All Star Break have gone 182-105-11 (63.4%) to the under since the 2008-09 season, per the SDQL at Killer Sports.
I expect a game with high defensive intensity as the playoffs draw near and teams are jockeying for favorable seeding.
Both of their head-to-head matchups this season have gone under the total. My numbers make this total 226, and I see value on the under.
Pick: Under 231.5 |
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