NBA Odds, Best Bets: Expert Picks for Wednesday, March 15
Via Adam Pantozzi/Getty Images. Pictured: Paul George #13 and Kawhi Leonard #2 of the LA Clippers look on against the San Antonio Spurs on January 26, 2023 at Crypto.Com Arena in Los Angeles, California.
- The NBA season continues with roughly a month left, and our experts have a handful of best bets ready.
- They are targeting spread picks, moneyline plays and total bets on Wednesday night.
- Find their best bets and analysis below.
The NBA regular season continues on Wednesday with roughly 13 games remaining for each team. With seven matchups to choose from, our NBA betting experts have five picks ready for you to tail. Find their best bets and analysis below.
NBA Odds & Picks
Celtics vs. Timberwolves Spread
Andrew O’Connor-Watts: It’s the time of the season where motivation becomes a big part of handicapping NBA games. The Minnesota Timberwolves (35-34) are on the outside of the playoffs looking in from the 7-seed. They sit just one game behind the Clippers and Warriors, who play each other tonight.
If the Wolves beat the Celtics at home, they’ll be tied with whoever loses Warriors vs. Clippers for the 6-seed and put themselves in a better position to avoid the play-in entirely.
The Wolves have been playing well lately, although not so much at home. They’re 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall but just 1-5 in their last six home games.
However, the Celtics are on a downward spiral. I’m not worried about them in the long term, but they haven’t been locked in lately, going 2-4 straight up in their last six games.
Rudy Gobert is questionable for Minnesota, and, while the Wolves have a better chance if he plays, the Celtics will also be without their defensive-minded big man, Robert Williams III.
The Wolves have also weathered the storm without Gobert. Surprisingly, their Defensive Rating stays about the same, going from 113.6 on the season to 113.4 in 12 games without him. Statistically, Gobert’s on-court impact is quite literally inconsequential. According to Cleaning the Glass, his Net Rating swing is 0 with 0 Expected Wins.
I think the Wolves will be fighting hard for this win against a Celtics team that has struggled recently. My model has this Wolves +1.5 if Gobert and Naz Reid (calf) sit, and while I’m hoping they both play, I’d take the Wolves down to +3.5 considering their ability to play well without Gobert (8-4 overall and 6-1 at home).
Pick: Timberwolves +5
Celtics vs. Timberwolves Total
Matt Moore: Shooting variance can always ruin a good under bet, but I took the under at 234.5. The Wolves have wing defenders and rim protection (if Rudy Gobert or Naz Reid can play) to challenge Boston, and they limit enough 3s to at least take some of the offensive edges off.
Meanwhile, Boston should apply pressure and limit an already mediocre offense with its length and switchability.
I like the value on Minnesota; the Celtics are not playing their best basketball, and the Wolves are good at home. But the number isn’t high enough due to the free throw threat in a close game. I do make this 229.5, however, meaning I’ll play the under to anything above 230.5.
Pick: Celtics-Wolves Under
Celtics vs. Timberwolves Spread
Austin Wang: On Monday, the Celtics lost outright to the Houston Rockets. Yes, you read that right. Arguably the league’s best team that is fighting for playoff seeding in a top-heavy Eastern Conference was upset by the lowly, lottery-bound Rockets team. Now that the Celtics have had some time to stew over that loss, expect a bounce-back in a big way.
On the other hand, the Timberwolves just blew out the Hawks at home on Monday by 21 points and are feeling confident – setting up for a let-down spot. Since the 2012-2013 season, home underdogs off a 20+ point victory have struggled the following game, going 63-96-3 ATS (39.6%), per the SDQL Killer Sports.
The Celtics have a big advantage in 3-point shooting – they are third in 3-point Rate and fifth in 3-point %, but the Timberwolves are 27th in 3-point % allowed. Rudy Gobert is dealing with a sprained ankle and is listed as questionable, potentially opening up a hole for the Wolves defensively.
With the situational factors at play, I see a dominant victory for the reigning Eastern Conference champs and would play the Celtics -4.5 (up to -6).
Pick: Celtics Spread
Bulls vs. Kings Moneyline
Tyler Schmidt: This spread is bouncing back-and-forth, which makes sense because this should be a very competitive and tight game. The public lean is definitely with the Kings on the spread as they are getting 76% of the bets as of this writing. They cover frequently and will add to that total tonight.
The over is intriguing, but the Kings score more than six points fewer on the road than at home this season. With the second seed within their grasp, the Kings won’t let up despite this being a road non-conference opponent. There’s no need to get cute with the spread, and I would take the Kings moneyline at -110 in this spot.
With that being said, if this spread gets up to -2 or -3 in the Kings’ favor, I would feel comfortable laying the points. They are simply the better all-around team.
Pick: Kings Moneyline
Warriors vs. Clippers Spread
Chris Baker: This reads as a great spot to buy the Clippers as they get to face this Warriors team with a two day-rest advantage. Golden State is coming off two intense home wins after beating Phoenix on Monday and defeating Milwaukee in overtime on Saturday night.
This could be an emotional letdown spot for the Warriors, and there may be some fatigue. There should be no injury/fatigue concerns for this Clippers team as they haven’t played since Saturday.
I’ve been trying to filter out the Golden State’s road woes as just variance, but with this large of a sample size, it is clear that they genuinely have issues getting up for road games. This Clippers team closed -3 in San Francisco on March 2nd and got absolutely blown out despite the Warriors missing Steph. I expect them to remember that defeat and come out with some urgency, especially considering these two teams are tied in the Western Conference standings.
The Warriors starters have looked legit, but their bench continues to be in the running for worst bench in the NBA. The Clippers have the depth to expose that bench weakness, and as long as their starters can hang with Steph Curry, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson, I expect them to cover this short number. Trust the Clippers to capitalize on their rest advantage and defend their home court tonight.
Pick: Clippers Spread
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