NBA Picks, Odds, Best Bets: Top Picks For Monday, Including Thunder vs. Pelicans, Hawks vs. 76ers (November 28)
Michael Gonzales/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Herbert Jones #5 of the New Orleans Pelicans.
- Tonight's NBA slate is loaded, but there are two games in particular our experts have their eyes on.
- Those games include the Hawks vs. the 76ers, and the Thunder vs. the Pelicans.
- Continue reading for a full breakdown of our best bets from tonight's NBA slate.
After an extended weekend, everyone is back to their regularly scheduled program, including our betting experts. Monday’s NBA slate features 10 games and two games in particular are catching our crews’ attention.
They are targeting one moneyline bet and one spread bet for tonight’s action. You can find their in-depth analysis and betting picks for Monday night below.
NBA Odds & Picks
Atlanta Hawks vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Chris Baker: The Hawks have not lived up to expectations this season as they rank just 18th in adjusted net rating and are 11-8 overall. Much of their season can be chalked up to shooting inefficiency as they rank 27th in Effective Field Goal Percentage and 27th in 3-point percentage.
This team can’t make shots but they should have a good chance to fix that against this Philly team down multiple key players. Everyone knows Maxey, Harden, and Embiid have been out, but Philly also could be without key defenders PJ Tucker and Matisse Thybulle.
That would leave them dangerously bereft of skilled switchable defenders to throw out there against this pick-and-roll heavy Atlanta Hawks team. Outside of De’Anthony Melton there is not many solid guard defenders on this team that is obviously a major issue when playing this guard tandem of Trae Young and Dejounte Murray.
This Philadelphia defense is being massively overrated as they have only played one above league-average offense in their last six games (Nets). Their defense has certainly improved but much of it has been predicated on forcing turnovers as they rank eighth in the NBA in turnover percentage on defense. This is something that the hawks won’t do as they have been the best offense in terms of turnover percentage (12.9%).
The second major edge for Atlanta will be their ability to get out in transition and push the pace. The Hawks offense ranks fifth in transition frequency while the 76ers defense ranks 27th in transition frequency allowed.
Philly has improved its transition points per 100 to 15th but much of this is predicated on Joel Embiid being out of the lineup. Embiid has a chance to return here and everyone assumes that is a good thing for this Philly team but for this specific matchup it may hurt them. Embiid struggles in drop pick-and-roll coverage and he pretty much nukes their ability to get back in transition.
I like the Hawks chances regardless of whether Embiid plays so I’m grabbing the line while it is still around even money. Trust the Hawks to bounce back on the road on Monday night.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Joe Dellera: The Pelicans take on the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight in New Orleans. The Pelicans are a far superior team and I’m a bit surprised by this line. I bet it and gave it out at the open at 4.5, but I think it’s fine to play up to 6.
The Pelicans are a top team in the league. They are third in Adjusted Net Rating (+5.6) and are sixth in both Adjusted Offensive Rating (115.5) and Adjusted Defensive Rating (109.9). They’ve actually had some poor results considering they are expected to have won 1.6 more games than their 11-8 record.
On the flip side, the Thunder are a losing streak away from a full on tank. They are 23rd in Adjusted Net Rating (-2.4) with below average marks in both Adjusted Offensive Rating and Adjust Defensive Rating.
We’ve seen the Pelicans get upset a few times this season, but that often was due to 3-point variance. In all but one of their losses, the Pelicans were outscored from 3-point range. This is not something the Thunder are equipped to do. The Thunder take just 33.3% of their shots from deep and only convert on 34.1% of those opportunities, per Cleaning the Glass.
Even though the Pelicans will likely be without both CJ McCollum (out – Health Protocols) and Brandon Ingram (toe – doubtful), they should still have enough firepower to take care of the Thunder.