NBA Picks Today: Expert Bets on Monday Night (March 18)

I have two NBA picks today for the Monday night slate in the NBA. I'm betting one over and one road underdog, so let's get into it.

NBA Picks Today: Expert Bets on Monday Night (March 18)

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With Joel Embiid (knee) remaining out and Tobias Harris (ankle) questionable for Philadelphia and Jimmy Butler (foot) questionable for Miami, this total has dipped below 210. However, the 76ers are averaging 111.8 points per game without both Embiid and Harris, while the Heat are averaging 111.1 points per game without Butler.

The 76ers still have firepower in the form of Tyrese Maxey and Kelly Oubre, who is averaging 20.5 points per game in March. The Heat’s addition of Terry Rozier helps blunt the blow if Butler misses, while Duncan Robinson is fresh off of a 30-point game and is averaging 16.4 points per game in March.

According to our Action Labs data, when an NBA total is more than 16 points below league average and the home team is favored, the over has gone 82-48-3 (63%) since 2016.

Bet to: 210

Pick: Over 208.5 (-110)

Desmond Bane will appear in just his second game since January 12 and gives the Grizzlies a big boost, averaging 24.5/4.5/5.3 on 47/39/86 shooting splits. Jaren Jackson Jr., who is averaging 22.4 points and 1.6 blocks per game, is also expected to be in the lineup for the Grizzlies, so they should be competitive against the Kings in this spot. The Grizzlies are looking for a Kings team that dropped them 123-92 on Dec. 31 and 103-94 on Jan 29.

“Light the Beam” has devolved into “light money on fire” for Kings backers at home. The Kings are 19-13 (59%) straight-up but just 13-19 (41%) ATS at home. After starting the year 7-4 (64%) ATS at home, the Kings have gone just 6-15 (29%) since.

The Grizzlies, meanwhile, have trotted out lineups where the casual fan has to Google almost every name, and thus have been consistently underrated by the market in what looks like the most dire spots, going 16-12 (57%) ATS as a road underdog.

Bet to +9

Pick: Grizzlies +11 (-110)