NBA Picks Tonight: Expert Bets (Monday, March 4)

I'm on two underdogs against the spread for my NBA picks tonight, both playing on the road and laying almost three possessions. Check out my picks and breakdowns below.

NBA Picks Tonight: Expert Bets

The Bucks have been rolling since the All-Star Break but after a close win over Minnesota in the first game back, they’ve beat up on the Joel Embiid-less 76ers, the Hornets twice and the Bulls.

The Clippers — assuming they continue to let Kawhi Leonard and Paul George play on the second half of back-to-backs – represent a step up in class and are one-half point better in Net Rating on the season (+4.9 vs. +4.4). The Bucks have tended to be overvalued with a rest advantage, going just 3-10 (23.1%) against the spread.

Bet to: +3.5

Pick: Clippers +5.5

Despite their 11th-place standing in the West at 27-34, the Jazz would typically be a strong bet to easily handle the 9-51 Wizards at home.

However, things get dicey since Utah is without Lauri Markkanen (out, quad) and his 23.1 points and 8.3 rebounds per game. The Jazz are averaging 119.4 points per game when Markkanen plays but only 107.9 when he sits. Without Markkanen and Walker Kessler (foot), the Jazz will be without two of their top four players in VORP (Value Over Replacement Player).

The Wizards are relatively healthy, and despite a 6-26 (18.8%) straight-up record as a road underdog, they are 19-12-1 (63.1%) in those spots, fifth-best in the NBA.

Bet to: +5

Pick: Wizards +6