NBA Player Prop & Pick: How to Bet Luka Doncic in Heat vs. Mavericks (Jan. 20)

NBA Player Prop & Pick: How to Bet Luka Doncic in Heat vs. Mavericks (Jan. 20) article feature image

Ron Jenkins/Getty Images. Pictured: Luka Doncic #77 of the Dallas Mavericks.

  • The Dallas Mavericks host the Miami Heat Friday in a primetime battle between two gritty teams.
  • Luka Doncic always has some magic up his sleeve, but the Heat might be the perfect team to nullify him.
  • PropBomb details his favorite NBA player prop for Heat vs. Mavericks.

Prop Bomb will be contributing to Action Network's NBA coverage this season, also tracking all his bets in the Action Network app. Follow him on Twitter.

NBA Player Prop & Pick

PropLuka Doncic Under 53.5 PRA (-111)
MatchupHeat vs. Mavericks
Time7:30 p.m. ET
Best BookFanDuel

The Miami Heat and the Dallas Mavericks will play their first game of the season in Dallas. We can certainly thank Luka Doncic's historic 60-21-10 line against the New YorkKnicks for inflating his points + rebounds + assists (PRA) props for the remainder of the season, but I don't expect that he'll see that type of volume tonight.

If any team has shown they know how to contain Luka's Magic, it's the Miami Heat. Doncic has averaged 41.4 PRA against the Heat, failing to go over this prop in all six prior meetings. He has averaged just 20.8 points per game against the Heat, his lowest mark against any franchise in his career.

Over his past 25 games, Doncic is averaging 51.4 PRA, which falls just below this line. Among the nine games in the sample where he surpassed this prop, six featured opponents that rank bottom-eight in Defensive Rating over the past 15 games: Houston Rockets three times (30th), San Antonio Spurs (29th), Los Angeles Clippers (24th), and L.A. Lakers (23rd).

To place your bets on this and many, many other markets across the world of sports, head over to FanDuel Sportsbook right now!

With the return of Kyle Lowry, the Heat are fully healthy for what seems like the first time this season. Since Christmas, the Heat have the fifth-best defense (111.1), play at the second-slowest Pace (96.58), and allowed the fewest points per game (107.1). Additionally, the Heat are allowing 39.5 opposing team rebounds (third-fewest) and 24.8 opposing assists (13th lowest), which does not bode well for Doncic's peripheral stats.

With a 214.5 game total, this will be a pace down spot for Doncic and the already sluggish Mavericks who play at the second-slowest Pace this season (96.56). Fewer possessions mean fewer rebound chances and potential points created off assists. This is not the matchup to expect Doncic to fill up the stat sheet, and I love his chances to go under this number, but wouldn't go lower than 53.5 — you can also shop for the best line on Action Network's props page.

Pick: Luka Doncic Under 53.5 PTS + REB + AST

How would you rate this article?

This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Action Network makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.