NBA Player Prop & Pick: How to Bet Luka Doncic in Heat vs. Mavericks (Jan. 20)

NBA Player Prop & Pick

The Miami Heat and the Dallas Mavericks will play their first game of the season in Dallas. We can certainly thank Luka Doncic's historic 60-21-10 line against the New YorkKnicks for inflating his points + rebounds + assists (PRA) props for the remainder of the season, but I don't expect that he'll see that type of volume tonight.

If any team has shown they know how to contain Luka's Magic, it's the Miami Heat. Doncic has averaged 41.4 PRA against the Heat, failing to go over this prop in all six prior meetings. He has averaged just 20.8 points per game against the Heat, his lowest mark against any franchise in his career.

Over his past 25 games, Doncic is averaging 51.4 PRA, which falls just below this line. Among the nine games in the sample where he surpassed this prop, six featured opponents that rank bottom-eight in Defensive Rating over the past 15 games: Houston Rockets three times (30th), San Antonio Spurs (29th), Los Angeles Clippers (24th), and L.A. Lakers (23rd).

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With the return of Kyle Lowry, the Heat are fully healthy for what seems like the first time this season. Since Christmas, the Heat have the fifth-best defense (111.1), play at the second-slowest Pace (96.58), and allowed the fewest points per game (107.1). Additionally, the Heat are allowing 39.5 opposing team rebounds (third-fewest) and 24.8 opposing assists (13th lowest), which does not bode well for Doncic's peripheral stats.

With a 214.5 game total, this will be a pace down spot for Doncic and the already sluggish Mavericks who play at the second-slowest Pace this season (96.56). Fewer possessions mean fewer rebound chances and potential points created off assists. This is not the matchup to expect Doncic to fill up the stat sheet, and I love his chances to go under this number, but wouldn't go lower than 53.5 — you can also shop for the best line on Action Network's props page.

Pick: Luka Doncic Under 53.5 PTS + REB + AST

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