NBA Player Prop & Picks: Fade Jalen Green in Rockets vs. Bulls (March 11)

NBA Player Prop & Picks: Fade Jalen Green in Rockets vs. Bulls (March 11) article feature image

Jamie Sabau/Getty Images. Pictured: Jalen Green #4 of the Houston Rockets controls the ball against the Chicago Bulls.

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NBA Player Prop & Pick

PropJalen Green u23.5 PTS (-125)
MatchupBulls vs. Rockets
Time8:30 p.m. ET
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Every game matters for the Chicago Bulls and in a meeting at Toyota Center vs. the Houston Rockets, I expect their defensive intensity to be on display tonight. For this game, I'm fading Jalen Green's points total as my favorite prop of the night.

For starters, this is not an ideal matchup for the sophomore guard. Green has averaged 21.8 points in 60 games this season, and with his teammate Kevin Porter Jr. (listed as probable), he averages 21.5 points alongside him in 44 games. Both averages fall below his prop line.

In the Rockets' last meeting against the Bulls, it took Green draining six 3-pointers (tied for a season-high) to get 24 points, but the shots were challenging.

The degree of difficulty on the threes made by Jalen Green against the Bulls were unreal..

— Bradeaux (@BradeauxNBA) December 27, 2022

Since then, the Bulls' defense has stepped up and in seven games with Alex Caruso and Patrick Beverley starting lineup, the Bulls allow the third-fewest points per game to opposing backcourts (41.4), according to Hoopsstats.

Green is the best when he can get to the basket. He takes most of his field goals less than 10 feet (44.6 % frequency) and leads his team in drives (13.9) over the last ten games. On the defensive side, the Bulls own the seventh-best Defensive Rating (110.2) and have been the best in limiting fast-break points (6.4) and points inside the paint (36.9) since All-Star break.

As for tempo, this will be an extreme Pace-down spot for Green. The Bulls play sluggishly slow (94.67) while also allowing 104.9 points per game, both rank last in the league.

Opposing guards have struggled vs. the Bulls including: Jamal Murray (11 points), Jaden Ivey (18 points), Fred VanVleet (three points), Bradley Beal (18 points) and Spencer Dinwiddie (two points).

The Rockets have the lowest implied team total on the slate at 108.5, according to FantasyLabs. With that in mind, I have the sophomore projected for 21 points tonight in a tough spot, and I love him going under his prop tonight.

Pick: Jalen Green Under 23.5 Points (-125)

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