Raybon’s Favorite NBA Props for Monday: Kevin Huerter Over/Under 11.5 Points?

Monday's NBA player props come from the following two games:

• Atlanta Hawks at Miami Heat: 7:30 p.m. ET on FS-SE
• Los Angeles Clippers at Los Angeles Lakers: 10:30 p.m. ET on NBA TV

As a reminder, our FantasyLabs NBA Player Props Tool leverages our projections against odds offered at various sportsbooks and grades each prop on a scale of 1 to 10. All odds as of 5 p.m. ET. View live odds here.

Hawks SG Kevin Huerter

The Pick: Under 11.5 Points (-115)

Huerter (back) was limited to 23 minutes yesterday and could have his playing time capped again on the second night of a back-to-back. Even if the 6-foot-7, 190-pound rookie out of Maryland isn't limited, he's averaging 10.8 points in 30.2 minutes as a starter.

The Hawks may be shorthanded tonight in Miami, but Huerter actually sees a slight dip in usage rate (-0.2%) and points per 36 minutes (-1.1) with Taurean Prince (out, personal) and John Collins (doubtful, illness) off the floor (per our NBA On/Off tool).

Huerter scored 15 points last Friday and 12 points Sunday but has never cleared 11.5 in three straight in his young career, going under 11.5 in 17 of 42 starts (59.5%).

At 11.5 (-115), the tool rates this prop 's Bet Quality as a 10/10, and points props rated as such have produced a 61% win rate (119-70-5) since the start of the season, so there should be some cushion even if the juice increases or the line drops.

Lakers SG Reggie Bullock

The Pick: Under 11.5 Points (-115)

Bullock is averaging just 9.8 points in 30.2 minutes in eight games as a Laker — and that's with shooting a regression-bound 43.6% from 3 (his career mark is 39.9%).

At his current scoring rate with LA, Bullock would need 36.9 minutes to be on pace for 12 points, but he's been on the floor for just 22.3 minutes a night over the Lakers' past two games. Even with Lance Stephenson (toe) sidelined, the 27-year-old journeyman has essentially been competing for minutes in the mid-20s with younger, higher-upside players like Josh Hart (19.5 over past two) and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (18.5).

Our NBA Player Models have Bullock projected for 25.5 minutes tonight against a Clippers squad that allows 9.7 made 3's per game, fifth-fewest in the league. Including 44 games this season with Detroit — where Bullock scored at a higher rate than he has with the Lakers — he has gone over 11.5 points in just 7 of 23 games (30.4%) in which he played under 30 minutes.

With sharp money on the Clippers and the under, and Bullock's minutes trending downward, this prop should have value up to -150 at 11.5, and up to -130 as low as 10.5.

At 11.5 (-115), the tool give this prop a 9/10 Bet Quality — a rating which, like 10s, has produced a 61% win rate (256-159-3) since the season began.