Raybon’s Favorite NBA Props for Tuesday: Will Paul Millsap Drop 14 Points?

The two NBA player props highlighted below are from the following two games:

• Houston Rockets at Sacramento Kings: 10 p.m. ET
  
• Denver Nuggets at Golden State Warriors: 10:30 p.m. ET (TNT)

As a reminder, our FantasyLabs NBA Player Props Tool leverages our projections against odds offered at various sportsbooks and grades each prop on a scale of 1 to 10. All odds as of 4:30 p.m. ET. View live odds here.

Rockets PF P.J. Tucker

THE PICK: Over 5.5 Points (-115)

Tucker has finished with exactly 3 points in each of his past three games, bringing this line down to 5.5 with minimal juice and creating value on the over.

Despite being an afterthought of an afterthought offensively, Tucker is still averaging 9.1 points per 36 minutes alongside the starting unit of Chris Paul, James Harden, Eric Gordon and Clint Capela this season (per our NBA On/Off tool). And our NBA Player Models have Tucker projected for 7.1 points in 33.5 minutes tonight.

During his recent string of 3-point games, Tucker shot just 3-of-13 (21.3%) from deep, but the 33-year-old vet has knocked down triples at an above-average 37.8% clip this season, and all we need for the over to hit is for him to knock down his customary two 3s instead of one. That percentage jumps to 40.4% on corner 3s, and the Kings are allowing opponents to attempt the ninth-highest rate of corner 3s in the league over the past month, per Cleaning the Glass.

Tucker has posted at least 6 points in just over 57% of his games this season, so this prop should have value up to -135.

At over 5.5 (-115), this prop is rated a perfect 10 in Bet Quality by our props tool, with a 5% cushion before it would drop to a 9. Both 10- and 9-rated props have smashed to the tune of a 58% win rate this season.

Nuggets PF Paul Millsap

THE PICK: Under 13.5 Points (-115)

Denver has been a dominant 31-7 at home but a middling 20-18 on the road, and no player on the team exemplifies those splits better than Millsap, who averages 14.9 points in 27.3 minutes at home but just 10.1 points in 27.1 minutes on the road.

At home, maybe he's "Trillsap;" on the road, he's plain old Millsap.

Those splits are unlikely to reverse course with him likely to spend most of the game being guarded by defense-first players like Draymond Green, Kevon Looney and Andre Iguodala, or by the 7-foot-5 wingspan of Kevin Durant. The Warriors are also letting up the fourth-lowest field-goal percentage in the league to power forwards, per Hashtag Basketball. (Also of note: Sharp money is on the under in this game.)

Millsap has failed to crack 14 points in two-thirds of his road starts, posting 12 or fewer 63% of the time, so this should have value down to under 12.5 at -170.

At under 13.5 (-115), it too is rated a perfect 10 by our props tool.

I usually throw a few more prop picks in the Action Network App throughout the night as I do more research and lineup news trickles in, so be sure to follow me there, as well.