Raybon’s Favorite NBA Prop for Wednesday: Will Pascal Siakam Grab 8 Rebounds?

The player prop highlighted below is for Game 3 of the 2019 NBA Finals on Wednesday night:

• Toronto Raptors at Golden State Warriors: 9 p.m. ET (ABC)

As a reminder, our FantasyLabs NBA Player Props Tool leverages our projections against odds offered at various sportsbooks and grades each prop on a scale of 1 to 10. All odds as of 12:45 p.m. ET. View live odds here.

Raptors PF Pascal Siakam

THE PICK: Over 7.5 Rebounds (+100)

This comes down to simple math: Siakam is averaging 0.21 rebounds per minute between the 2018-19 regular season and playoffs (with no drop-off on the road), and he's averaging 40.5 minutes per game in the NBA Finals. That would put him on pace for a full rebound more than this line.

Looked at another way: The Warriors have allowed 12.0 rebounds per game to the power forward position over the last month, per Hashtag Basketball, which would put Siakam on pace for eight rebounds at 32 minutes and 10 at 40.

Our NBA Player Models project Siakam to come down with 9.5 boards in 40.5 minutes, giving this prop a perfect 10 rating in bet quality in our props tool (59% win rate this season), with a slate-high 28% difference between projected and implied total.

Siakam has finished with eight-plus rebounds in just under 60% of games in which he played at least 36 minutes this season, which is roughly what I'd set the odds of him ending up with at least eight tonight; I'd play over 7.5 up to -150.

I usually throw a few more prop picks in the Action Network App throughout the night as I do more research and lineup news trickles in, so be sure to follow me there.