NBA Player Props Tonight | Picks, Bets for Jazz vs Suns

NBA Player Props Tonight | Picks, Bets for Jazz vs Suns

Welcome to the first weekend of the NBA season — and welcome to the best NBA player props today, with picks and bets for Saturday, October 28.

This seven-game slate features a plethora of low-scoring totals, but the sportsbooks have a few enticing lines to take advantage of. Using our NBA Props Model to narrow down the options, three of these props seem to be an overreaction from the first one-to-two games to start the season.

Let's get to our NBA player props today, where we have a special expert guest.

Editor's Note: This Jazz vs Suns player prop for Saturday is courtesy of our Director of Predictive Analytics, the Oddsmaker himself, Sean Koerner:

Dunn has five assists this season despite only having four potential assists. I realize this can happen due to the subjective nature of potential assists tracking, but it’s the other underlying passing metrics that have caught my eye, as well.

Dunn has seen his pass rate drop from 1.98 passes per minute to 1.21 in two games this season. The rate at which his passes turn into potential assists has also been cut in half this season.

I’m not going to overreact to the small sample size of two games, and I’m projecting his pass rate/potential assist rate to regress closer to what it was last season. So, I’m projecting him to have about 30 passes tonight, 5.5 of which should turn into potential assists with only about 55% of them going in as opposed to the theoretically impossible 125% rate so far this season.

That comes out to three assists for my projection with a 64% chance of staying under 3.5. That puts the fair price closer to -175.

Pick: Kris Dunn Under 3.5 Assists (-132, FanDuel)

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Last game was one to forget for Daniel Gafford, who was in foul trouble basically the entire night. He had four first half fouls and ended up only playing 21 total minutes. He managed to finish with six points and five rebounds, but the Wizards were also beat by 23 points. It would've been a great game environment for Gafford to showcase his skillset as the Pace was 110.5, but he couldn't keep his hands to himself.

The Wizards are playing on two days of rest, while this is the second leg of the Grizzlies' back-to-back. Ja Morant remains suspended, while defensive stalwart Steven Adams is out for the season. Gafford will battle in the frontcourt against Jaren Jackson Jr. and Xavier Tillman. He is projected to play close to 30 minutes in this matchup.

The 227.5-point total for this game is the highest on the slate. Gafford is projected for 19.1 points and rebounds tonight, which is one of the best player props in our Props Model. The Wizards lost Kristaps Porzingis during the offseason, but didn't bring anyone in to really challenge Gafford for his playing time. Expect a bounce back game from Gafford. If he can stay out of foul trouble, he should get this over with ease. Comfortably take this over points and rebounds prop to 17.5 in this spot.

Pick: Daniel Gafford Over 15.5 Points+Rebounds (-110)

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DeMar DeRozan's points prop seems way too low in this spot against the Detroit Pistons. DeRozan has averaged 21 or more points in eight consecutive seasons and scored 33 last night. It is the second leg of a back-to-back for the Bulls after DeRozan played 41 minutes, but the Pistons were one of the worst defensive teams last season. They ranked 27th in Defensive Rating, while allowing 118.5 points per game.

DeRozan leads the Bulls in usage rate with 28.7%, while shooting 47.6% from the field and 33.3% from behind the arc. He scored 18 points in the fourth quarter and went 10-for-14 from the charity stripe. DeRozan missed two free throws late that could've won the game in regulation, but his aggressiveness was at least rewarded. DeRozan has led the Bulls in drives per game the last two years and had 16 last game.

This total has dropped to 216 points, but DeRozan looks great tonight. On back-to-backs last season, DeRozan averaged 21.5 points per game with a 24.7% usage rate. He played 36.8 minutes per game in those contests, so playing time shouldn't be an issue tonight. DeRozan's points prop is only 20.5 right now on FanDuel Sportsbook and up to 21.5 points on others. Always shop around for the best deal.

Pick: DeMar DeRozan Over 20.5 Points (-120)

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Tobias Harris ran extremely hot in the 76ers first game shooting 8-for-9 from the field and making all 3-point attempts. He finished the game with 20 points, seven rebounds, and two assists easily getting over his points, rebounds, and assists prop. Despite the great shooting night, we're going right back to the well for the 76ers second game on the road against the Raptors.

James Harden remains away from the team, which means the 76ers need Harris' scoring. In 20 games last season without Harden, Harris averaged 18.5 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 3.5 assists per game. His usage rate jumped from 16.8% with Harden to 22.4% without. Even with most of the usage going to Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey, Harris should have plenty of opportunity to get over this prop line.

Our Props Model has Harris projected for 24.5 points, rebounds, and assists tonight, which is comfortably over this prop line. Harris had a 14.3% usage rate last game, which was below even Kelly Oubre Jr. and De'Anthony Melton, and he still got there. Expect more looks to come his way this game, which negates the difficult matchup and low 214.5-point game total. Take this prop up to 23.5 points, rebounds, and assists tonight.

Pick: Tobias Harris Over 22.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists

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