NBA Player Props Today: Zach LaVine, Joel Embiid Among Top Expert Picks (Wednesday, March 15)
Via Dustin Bradford/Getty Images. Pictured: Zach LaVine #8 of the Chicago Bulls sets to slam the ball for a score on a fast break against the Denver Nuggets in the second half of a game at Ball Arena on March 8, 2023 in Denver, Colorado.
- Our props analyst has a trio of player prop overs ready for Wednesday's NBA slate.
- He sees big nights coming for Zach LaVine, Joel Embiid and Jaden McDaniels.
- Find Alex Hinton's picks and analysis for his player prop bets below.
For a seven-game slate tonight, there are many compelling matchups and several games with playoff implications. In my opinion, the best game is 76ers vs. Cavaliers, the current third and fourth seeds in the Eastern Conference. The teams have split two meetings thus far, and this will be the rubber match. Joel Embiid could be the difference in this one with the Cavs possibly being shorthanded.
From a props betting perspective, I think the Kings vs. Bulls is the premier matchup. With a total of 239 points, this game could see overs everywhere. One of those players who should have a big night is Zach LaVine. He lit up the Kings in the first meeting, and he is in a favorable spot again.
Not to be outdone, All-Stars Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Anthony Edwards will share the floor in Minnesota. They are each capable of going for 40 points any given night. However, I have my eye on a key role player in this matchup.
After a sweep on Monday, let’s keep the momentum going this Wednesday night.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Joel Embiid Over 34.5 Points + Assists (-120)
|Time | TV||7:30 p.m. ET | ESPN|
The Cleveland Cavaliers are coming off a two-game road sweep of the Charlotte Hornets. They won both games without center Jarrett Allen and last night’s game without guard Donovan Mitchell. Mitchell and Allen are both game-time decisions, but Allen’s presence is more significant for this prop. In both games in Charlotte, Evan Mobley slid over and manned the five position for Cleveland. However, in both games, he picked up two fouls in the first quarter.
Mobley avoided foul trouble the rest of the way in both games, but that may not be the case against Joel Embiid. If Mobley gets in foul trouble again, Cleveland may have a hard time stopping Embiid without Allen. However, it may not matter if he plays or not.
Dating back to 2021, Embiid has scored 35 points in four of seven games against the Cavaliers. He is one basket away from 30 points in five of those seven games. This season, he is averaging 33.4 points per game and 36.7 points in six games this month. I like this play because Embiid could easily go over this line with just points.
However, he has also had at least four assists in six of those seven games against the Cavs. If he is having a big scoring night, Cleveland will have to double team him, and the Sixers have several capable secondary scoring options. Embiid is averaging 4.3 assists this month and a combined 41 points + assists. We just need 35 for him to go over.
Additionally, Embiid is battling to win the MVP award. Dominating a frontline like Cleveland’s in a nationally television game will not hurt his cause.
Pick: Joel Embiid Points + Assists Over
Jaden McDaniels Over 12.5 Points (-105)
|Time | TV||8 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
On Monday night, we cashed on Anthony Edwards’ points. It was sweaty, but he finished with 32 points despite going 2-for-10 beyond the arc. Edwards has stepped up on the defensive end this season, and Jaden McDaniels has been his partner on the perimeter. However, McDaniels has also been chipping in on the offensive end as well.
McDaniels is averaging 11.7 points this season, but he is averaging 14.2 points over his last 10 games. He has gone over this total of 12.5 points in six of those games and finished 11 and 12 points in two others. When McDaniels has gone over this line of late, he has done so with relative ease. He has scored 15 points in all six games, 19 points in five of the games, but 20 points just once.
You can also take him to score 15 points at +155 on FanDuel. Once alternate lines are added, you can probably find good value on over 17.5 points as well in case he stops just short of 20 again.
McDaniels has gotten the job done with incredible efficiency rather than high volume. Over his last 10 games, he is only averaging 9.5 field goal attempts per game, but he is shooting 60% from the field. I would prefer higher volume, but McDaniels is playing over 30 minutes a night.
In this matchup, Minnesota will need his defense to slow down Jayson Tatum and/or Jaylen Brown. McDaniels scored 17 points on 15 field goal attempts in the first meeting against Boston. We just need 13 to cash this over.
Pick: Jaden McDaniels Points Over
Zach LaVine Over 27.5 Points (-120)
|Time | TV||8 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
If you like offensive basketball, Sacramento Kings games are for you. Nine of the Kings’ last 10 games have had at least 235 points, and all 10 have had at least 230 points. The Kings do their share of scoring, but they’ll give points up as well. In this matchup, I am expecting them to struggle to slow down Zach LaVine.
The Bulls guard is averaging 24.9 points per game this season. However, he is averaging 30.4 points over his last 10 games. LaVine has gone over this line in six of last 10 games and he finished with 27 in two others. In March, he has picked it up even more. LaVine is averaging 35 points per game this month and has eclipsed 40 points twice.
LaVine’s scoring binge has coincided with an increase in volume. He is averaging 18 field goal attempts per game this season, but that has increased to 21.6 in March. LaVine is shooting 56.5% from the field this month, 51.4% from 3 on 7.4 attempts per game and 87.2% on 7.8 attempts at the foul line.
In the first meeting in Sacramento, LaVine scored 41 points on 28 field goal attempts. It helps that Sacramento is 26th or worse in Defensive Efficiency, points allowed per game, field goal percentage defense and 3-point percentage defense.
This game has a total of 239 points, so LaVine will have to keep firing to help the Bulls outgun the Kings. This is the kind of game that is perfect for a lotto same-game parlay. However, you can also keep it light and bet on LaVine and De’Aaron Fox to have a duel. It is +2027 on FanDuel for LaVine and Fox to each score 35 points.
Pick: Zach LaVine Points Over
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