Is NBA Playoff Experience Overrated? This Trend Says It Might Be

Experience wins in the postseason.

That's the trope sports fans have heard all their lives, and it makes sense. Young teams are supposed to have growing pains. Age over beauty in the playoffs. Experience wins.

But a trend from our BetLabs data suggests otherwise — at least for bettors.

Think about teams that made the previous postseason and returned again this year but as a lower seed that's forced to start its playoff run on the road.

Who are those teams? They're often fallen giants, filled with older, experienced stars on teams that underperformed this year but snuck into the playoffs anyway. Oftentimes, we expect those teams to make a veteran push.

Think this year's Lakers or Suns, or last year's Warriors.

It may be tempting to bet on those veteran teams, but history says we should be doing the exact opposite — at least for the first two games of the opening round.

Home teams in Games 1 and 2 of the first round facing an opponent that made last year's postseason are an astonishing 107-63-3 against the spread (ATS) in those early games.

That's a 61.8% hit rate on a not-insignificant number of games, dating back to 2006.

If you had blindly bet $100 on every home team in Games 1 and 2 of the opening round against repeat playoff opponents, you'd be up $3,512 since 2006.

And the trend is getting stronger. Since just 2016, those same Game 1 and 2 home teams are 53-21 ATS for a 71.6% hit rate.

That trend was already in action this weekend, of course. So, how did it do?

Well, five home teams are facing an opponent that played in last year's postseason: the Celtics, Knicks, Thunder, Nuggets and Timberwolves. Sure enough, those five teams went 4-1 ATS.

The only miss was in Sunday's finale by the Thunder, perhaps included on a technicality here since the Pelicans were just a play-in team last season.

The trend actually gets even stronger from Game 1 to Game 2, increasing from a 58.9% hit rate to 65.1%.

That's bad news for the Heat, 76ers, Pelicans, Lakers and Suns. It's also a reminder that yesterday's playoffs may be old news and that the teams stuck on the road early are probably there for a reason.

If we really want to get granular, home teams in just Game 2 of the first round facing a repeat playoff opponent since 2016 are a whopping 28-7 ATS (80%), including a perfect 10-0 over the last two years.

History says to back the Celtics, Knicks, Thunder, Nuggets and Timberwolves at home in Game 2.

Out with the old, in with the new!

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