The NBA regular season is back in action with a jam-packed 10-game slate this Monday, so I've locked in same game parlays for two of tonight's contests.
The first parlay encapsulates a narrative that sees the Thunder blowout the 76ers behind a big game for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Meanwhile, the second SGP sees the Hawks roll to a victory despite some solid performances from the Grizzlies' youngsters.
Let's get into my NBA Same Game Parlay Strategy Guide for Monday, March 23.
NBA Same Game Parlay Strategy Guide for Monday
Thunder vs 76ers Parlay Preview
The Angle: SGA Leads Another OKC Blowout
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 29.5 Points
The Thunder continue on the fourth game of their five-game East Coast tonight in Philadelphia. They have won the first three games as well as their last 11 games overall and once again own the longest winning streak in the NBA.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the way with 40 points as they defeated the Wizards 132-111 on Saturday. Gilgeous-Alexander remains the league's second-leading scorer behind Luka Doncic at 31.6 points per game.
Tonight, there is a discount on his scoring line as the line is set at 29.5 points. Perhaps in anticipation of another blowout or maybe due to Jalen Williams being back in the lineup.
However, SGA has scored 30 points in 40 of 59 games (68%) this season and in 24 of 33 games (73%) when the Thunder win by 10 or more points.
Philadelphia is 19th in defensive rating over its past 15 games and SGA has scored 32, 31, and 27 points in the last meetings.
If he plays his usual 30-34 minutes, he should get to 30 points again tonight.
Pick: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 29.5 Points
The Contrarian SGP: J-Dub Points Under, Thunder Spread
Jalen Williams Under 14.5 Points
Last season, Williams could not ask for much more as he was an All-Star, made All-NBA, and won his first championship. That was despite playing through a wrist injury that requiring pain-killing injections during the playoffs.
Williams had surgery to repair the ligament this offseason and he missed the first 19 games of the season. Two strained hamstrings followed and he has been limited to 26 games this season.
Despite the drop in his scoring from last season, Williams is still averaging 17.5 points per game this season. He has scored 15 points in 19 of 26 (73%) games this season.
The reason I am on the under tonight is because he is likely on a minutes restriction, since he last played on February 11 against Phoenix.
The Thunder need to get Williams ramped up for the playoffs, but with 11 games to do so, I expect that to happen gradually.
When Williams returned from his two extended injuries, he played 29 minutes against Phoenix and 24 against the Lakers.
In those two games, he shot 9-for-29 from the field while scoring 11 and 23 points. He was aided by going 11-for-12 from the free throw line against the Lakers.
If Williams plays around 25 minutes and is also rusty, he will likely stay under 15 points tonight.
Pick: Jalen Williams Under 14.5 Points
Thunder -15.5
Once again, Philadelphia will be without Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey, and Paul George. They have managed to survive the last 15 games, going 9-6 — but with a -2.5 net rating.
However, the losses have been handily, losing by 28 to the Nuggets, 22 to the Pistons, 14 to the Cavaliers, nine to the Hawks, 40 to the Spurs, and 16 to the Celtics.
All of those teams rank in the top six in their respective conferences, and tonight they are playing the team with the best record in the NBA.
The Thunder have won the last three meetings 118-102, 133-100, and 129-104 while covering each of those games — and although they have not been the best team against the number of late, they have four double-digit victories in their last 10 games despite a difficult schedule.
Against a shorthanded 76ers team, I like the Thunder to win comfortably once again.
Pick: Thunder -15.5
Same Game Parlay Building Blocks (+540)
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 30+ Points
- Jalen Williams Under 14.5 Points
- Thunder -15.5
Compounding Angle (+950)
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 35+ Points
- Jalen Williams Under 14.5 Points
- Thunder -15.5
Grizzlies vs Hawks Parlay Preview
The Angle: Grizzlies Youngsters Shine, Hawks Roll
GG Jackson 15+ Points
The Grizzlies are in the middle of transitioning from the feisty up-and-coming core led by Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, Dillon Brooks, and Jaren Jackson Jr.
Only Morant remains from that group, and he has not played since January 21 — and may not play again this season.
They traded Jackson to Utah, and have won just five of 22 games since. However, with JJJ out West, GG Jackson has gotten more opportunity.
This season, he has averaged 20.8 minutes per game with a 22.3% usage rate. Over his last 20 games, he is averaging 25.8 minutes per game with a 25.3% usage rate. He has averaged 16.4 points while shooting 53.5% from the field and 39.2% from three-point range.
His minutes remain capped because Memphis is not playing anyone 30 minutes when they have 10 or more players available. However, he is doing enough to show he should be its power forward of the future.
He enters tonight's game having scored 15 points in six of his last seven games, and I expect that trend to continue tonight.
Pick: GG Jackson 15+ Points
Walter Clayton Jr. Over 4.5 Assists
Morant has averaged 7.4 assists per game for his career. Even in his absence, the Grizzlies are averaging about 27 assists per game despite a revolving door of point guards.
In addition to Morant, Scottie Pippen Jr. is also out, Javon Small is questionable, and Cam Spencer is doubtful. That would leave Ty Jerome and Walter Clayton Jr. as the team's primary ball-handlers.
The Grizzlies got Clayton as part of the return in the Jackson trade. Since then, he has averaged 8.4 points and 5.8 assists in 15 games with Memphis.
With the Grizzlies, Clayton has recorded five assists in nine of 15 games. He has fallen short in each of the last three games, but he has played 19 and 21 minutes in two of those games.
The lack of available guards and de-cluttering of the rotation a bit should help him get back over this line tonight. He had seven assists against Portland in his last game with Jerome, but without Pippen and Spencer.
Pick: Walter Clayton Jr. Over 4.5 Assists
The Contrarian SGP: Grizzlies Props, Hawks to Cover the Spread
Hawks -14.5
The Grizzlies have played themselves into solid position in the lottery, as they now have the league's seventh-worst record.
If that holds, they will be in position to draft a long-time replacement for Morant with a strong point guard class or an intriguing wing like in-state Tennessee forward Nate Ament, who helped the Vols reach the Sweet 16 yesterday.
The Grizzlies will be taking on a Hawks team that has won 12 of their last 13 games, with 11 of those wins coming by double digits, and they lead the league with a +13.9 net rating in that span.
It has taken all of that just to get out of Play-In Tournament range for now, but still work remains in the final weeks of the regular season. Just 2.5 games separate the 5-10 seeds in the Eastern Conference.
These teams have split the last 10 meetings, and many of them have been close games. However, they have different motivations right now, and the Hawks are playing at an elite level with and without Jalen Johnson, who is questionable tonight.
Whether he plays or not, I expect the Hawks to roll — and it gives us a nice bump in our parlay odds when combined with the Grizzlies props.
Pick: Hawks -14.5
Same Game Parlay Building Blocks (+500)
- GG Jackson 15+ Points
- Walter Clayton Jr. Over 4.5 Assists
- Hawks -14.5
Compounding Angle (+1075)
- GG Jackson 20+ Points
- Walter Clayton Jr. Over 4.5 Assists
- Hawks -14.5
