In tonight's nightcap on NBC, the Portland Trail Blazers will head to the Intuit Dome to take on the Los Angeles Clippers.
The Clippers will enter the matchup with a 1.5-game lead over the Trail Blazers for the eighth seed in the Western Conference. That means tonight's game will have a significant impact on the Play-In Tournament, and the Clippers have an advantage being at home.
I will be backing the Clippers to win at home tonight led by Kawhi Leonard and Darius Garland. Let's get into my NBA Same Game Parlay Strategy Guide for Tuesday, March 31.
NBA Same Game Parlay Strategy Guide: Trail Blazers vs Clippers
The Angle: Clippers Take Control of the 8-Seed
Clippers Moneyline
With most teams having six-to-eight games left in the regular season, the Clippers and Blazers both know they are likely to be in the Play-In Tournament.
The Trail Blazers are already locked into a spot, as they are 7.5 games behind the Rockets with six games to play, while the Clippers are six games back of the Rockets. However, there is a big difference between the eighth and ninth seeds, particularly this year.
In the Play-In Tournament, the team that finishes with the eighth-best record has two opportunities to make the playoffs. If they were to lose the opening game — in this case at Phoenix — they would then get a home game to claim the eighth seed.
Conversely, the team that finishes ninth is immediately thrown into a win-or-go home scenario. In this case, that would be against Stephen Curry and the Warriors.
The Warriors have not been in a rush to bring Curry back, likely because they know they will be in the Play-In Tournament either way, but he has been ramping up towards a return. When Curry is healthy, he is not someone that you want to face in a one-game scenario.
Curry has averaged 32 points and five assists per game against Portland this season. The Blazers still managed to win the season series 3-1, but they have had not as much luck against the Clippers.
The Clippers have taken nine of the last 10 meetings in this series — and both this season.
This will be the first meeting since the James Harden trade, but Garland has done well filling in for him. Since his team debut, the Clippers are 10-3 with Garland in the lineup.
The Clippers have the league's second-best net rating over their last five games. Portland is right behind them in third despite being 3-2 in their last five games. However, the Clippers are 21-15 at home while the Trail Blazers are 17-21 on the road.
I'll give the Clippers the edge at home, which would extend their lead to 2.5 games and clinch the season series tiebreaker.
Pick: Clippers Moneyline
The Correlated SGP: Clippers ML, Leonard & Garland Overs, Avdija Under
Kawhi Leonard 25+ Points
Leonard has played in 59 games this season, and he has scored 20 points or more in 56 of them. That includes 51 games consecutively, a new franchise record — and a span in which he has averaged 29 points per game on 50/38/89 shooting splits.
The Clippers are 32-19 in that stretch after a disastrous start to the season.
Kawhi enters tonight's game having scored 25 points in nine of his last 10 games and averaging 29.5 points per game during that stretch. He owns a 36.3% usage rate and is shooting 54% from the field in that span.
While the playoffs have not started yet, this is the time of year when Leonard usually kicks it into high gear.
Last season, Leonard scored 33 points against the Warriors on the final day of the regular season.
That game determined the final spot in the Play-In Tournament, and the Clippers prevailed to claim the fifth seed — and although, there will still be 12 days left in the regular season, today's situation is similar.
Leonard has already scored 30 and 28 points in wins over Portland this season, and I like him to get there once again tonight.
Pick: Kawhi Leonard 25+ Points
Darius Garland 8+ Assists
Garland is averaging 21.3 points and seven assists per game as a member of the Clippers. He is averaging 7.5 assists over his last 10 games. He tends to flirt somewhere between six and seven assists, however, he has gotten all the way up to 10+ assists in three of his last seven games.
In his double-digit assists games, Garland had 18, 18, and 13 potential assists. Leonard did not play against the Spurs and had just 20 points against the Bucks on Sunday. However, he scored 34 points against the Mavericks when Garland had 10 assists.
Portland is 13th in assists allowed per game this season. However, while with the Cavaliers, Garland has had seven, seven, and eight assists in three of his last four games against the Trail Blazers.
Garland is one of the best facilitators in the league, and if the Clippers are going to win tonight, I like Garland to set the table — particularly when he shares the floor with Leonard and Bennedict Mathurin.
Pick: Darius Garland 8+ Assists
Deni Avdija Under 24.5 Points
Deni Avdija has scored 23 and 29 points in two games against the Clippers this season. He is enjoying a breakout season that earned him his first All-Star appearance.
However, he last played the Clippers back in December — and over the last few weeks, Deni has not quite been the same player.
Since the All-Star break, Avdija is averaging 19 points per game while shooting 44% from the field and a putrid 19% from three-point range.
He has played five less minutes per game post-All-Star break, and that has resulted in three less field goal attempts and one less free throw attempts per game, a much-discussed topic with him this season.
Deni missed time with a lower back injury and may still be feeling the effects of it.
Avdija has failed to score 25 points in five straight games while averaging 19.8 points per game. He has scored 25 points in just one of his last six games against the Clippers, while averaging 17.8 points per game.
With Leonard ad Derrick Jones Jr. among the players available to guard him tonight, I like the Clippers to hold him under 25 points once again.
Pick: Deni Avdija Under 24.5 Points
Same Game Parlay Building Blocks (+560)
- Kawhi Leonard 25+ Points
- Darius Garland 8+ Assists
- Deni Avdija Under 24.5 Points
- Clippers Moneyline
Compounding Angle (+1600)
- Kawhi Leonard 30+ Points
- Darius Garland 10+ Assists
- Deni Avdija Under 24.5 Points
- Clippers Moneyline
