The New York Knicks (48-28) and Memphis Grizzlies (25-50) will face off in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 8:00 p.m. ET from FedExForum in Memphis, Tennessee. The game will be broadcast live on FDSSE.
The Knicks are 14.5-point favorites over the Grizzlies on the spread (Knicks -14.5), with the over/under set at 227.5 total points. New York is a -1000 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Memphis is +660 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Knicks vs. Grizzlies predictions and NBA picks for Wednesday, April 1.
Knicks vs Grizzlies Prediction, Pick
- Knicks vs Grizzlies pick: Grizzlies +14.5 (-110)
My Grizzlies vs. Knicks best bet is on Memphis to cover the spread. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Knicks vs Grizzlies Odds
| Knicks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14.5 -110 | 227.5 -114o / -106u | -1000 |
| Grizzlies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14.5 -110 | 227.5 -114o / -106u | +660 |
Knicks vs Grizzlies NBA Preview
The Knicks are entering the second night of a back-to-back after being thoroughly throttled by the Rockets in a game that felt like a wire-to-wire, double-digit lead for Houston.
My thought process behind backing the Grizzlies here is based on seeding and potential rest.
Looking at the playoff race, the Knicks and Cavaliers are locked into a battle for the third and fourth seeds — and a strong case can be made that the fourth seed is actually more desirable.
As it currently stands, the fourth seed would draw the Raptors instead of the surging Hawks in Round 1 — and then the winner of that series would theoretically face the Pistons instead of the Celtics in Round 2.
Given the Celtics are the favorites to win the East and the Pistons have dealt with Cade Cunningham's health struggles, you might prefer to catch Detroit early before Cade finds his full rhythm.
While I don't think the Knicks will purposely lose, the situational factors on a back-to-back road trip suggest an increased probability that key players sit.
There is a high chance Jalen Brunson, OG Anunoby, or Josh Hart could rest. Mikal Bridges will likely play to protect his "Ironman" streak — but Mitchell Robinson rarely plays both ends of a back-to-back, and Karl-Anthony Towns could easily be downgraded to questionable.
Currently, the market is pricing this game as if the Knicks' stars are all active.
The fact that the spread is sitting at Grizzlies +14.5 reflects the Memphis injury report, but fails to account for potential absences for the Knicks.
This is a "blind play" based on asymmetric risk; it’s about the numbers, not the teams. If these players are downgraded, the line will move significantly, potentially offering a window to play it back the other way.
Knicks vs Grizzlies Predictions, Betting Analysis
Taking the points with Memphis is the obvious play here.
Looking at the math, if we conservatively value Brunson at four points against the spread, he only needs to sit 17.5% of the time for this to be a +EV play — and that calculation doesn't even factor in the added risk of OG, KAT, or Hart sitting.
I believe there is much greater than a 17.5% chance that we either see Brunson sit or get downgraded to "questionable" — which should provide closing line value.
If the Knicks end up playing everyone, you are likely holding a ticket with roughly -2% EV — but if they sit, you are looking at a ticket closer to +14% EV.
I’ll gladly assume that risk. Sign me up for Grizzlies +14.5 tonight.
Pick: Grizzlies +14.5 (-110)
