The NBA regular season is back in action with an excellent 7-game slate for this Saturday, and I've locked in a total of six picks spanning three of today's contests — including bets for Celtics vs. Wizards, Lakers vs. Nuggets, and more.
Let's get to my NBA predictions, picks and expert bets for Saturday, March 14.
NBA Picks, Predictions for Saturday, March 14
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Nets vs. 76ers
Since the All-Star break, the Nets have been the worst offense and the worst defense in the NBA.
The Sixers are without Tyrese Maxey, Joel Embiid, and Paul George.
What better way to kick off your NBA Saturday than with Nets-Sixers?!
76ers -8.5
No Maxey, no Embiid, no PG — likely no Drummond, no Oubre, no Adem Bona.
For the Nets, no Claxton, no Egor Demin, no Michael Porter Jr., no Day’Ron Sharpe.
Woof.
I should be on the Nets here. The Sixers are missing six points of spread value due to injuries and having no centers.
But neither do the Nets, and the Nets are much worse. Without MPJ this season, the Nets are 5-9 ATS, though just 3-4 on the road.
This is a lot of points to lay, but the Sixers have a functional, professional rotation, even with these injuries — and they are motivated to win this game, while the Nets are not.
The Sixers have handled bad teams this year, going 13-6 ATS against teams with a winning percentage below 30%. The average margin of victory in those games was 6.5, and the ATS differential was +0.6.
Yes, that was with a fuller compliment, but their overall performance in these spots has been strong.
I just have no real way to put a floor on the Nets. They were 15.5-point underdogs to the surging Hawks, who are playing much better than the Sixers right now, and don’t have as many injuries — and Brooklyn lost by 11, covering the spread without MPJ.
But the injury adjustment still probably makes the Sixers less than 15.5-point favorites by several points.
VJ Edgecombe should have himself a day, Quentin Grimes will get buckets, Cameron Payne and Trendon Watford will do things.
Many guys who are not real NBA players will play for the Nets today. I will take the NBA players to win by nine points or more.
Under 216.5
The Under is 8-6 when Michael Porter Jr. doesn’t play this season, and 21-13 overall when the Nets are on the road.
It’s a low number, and fully healthy, I’d have this line projected way above and it would be an easy big bet on the Over.
But, there are going to be a lot of players and lineups in this game who have no idea what they are doing because they've barely played together.
Noah Clowney 13+ Points
Noah Clowney has played less than 30 minutes consistently as of late with the team tanking. But Nic Claxton and Day’Ron Sharpe are out.
The Nets just don’t have the bodies. Someone is going to have to get touches and rebounds — and I think Clowney is that guy.
I will also play the very lightest sprinkle on a long shot double-double at +2300.
The most likely scenario here is that he doesn’t play past the six-minute mark of the third quarter, but I’ll hope for a game where he actually gets to do his job.
Clowney can get the 13 points in this spot, even with the limited minutes.
Picks: 76ers -8.5, Under 216.5, Noah Clowney 13+ Points / Sprinkle Double-Double
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Wizards vs. Celtics
Celtics -19.5
Boston is 9-5 this season as a home favorite against a team below .500 and 11-4 ATS as a double-digit favorite, regardless of location (8-4 ATS at home).
The Wizards are 10-21 ATS this season against teams that are .500 or better ATS.
The Wizards’ average line this season is +10.1, and when it is above that, they are 15-24 ATS (38.5%).
We are going to bring back an old, familiar Celtics spot: Boston after a loss.
Boston is 15-7 ATS this season after a loss. Overall, Joe Mazzulla is 54-31 ATS after a loss.
In short, the Wizards should get well and truly thumped here.
I make this line Celtics -20.5 with the injury report for both teams, and expect Boston to make a statement against the team that just gave up 83 to Bam Adebayo a few days ago.
Pick: Celtics -19.5
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Nuggets vs. Lakers
This is a legitimate playoff-level game.
The Nuggets and Lakers are tied 1-1 with one to play. This game decides the tiebreaker in a seeding race with Denver one game back in the loss column.
Both teams legitimately need this game.
The Nuggets have everyone back except Peyton Watson. They are riding high coming off wins over Houston and San Antonio, but this is a 3rd-game-in-4-nights spot for them.
Luka. Jokic. LeBron. Murray. Reaves. Gordon. Let’s bet Nuggets-Lakers!
Lakers +2.5
I think this game should be a pick‘em at best. If anything, the Lakers should probably be favored by a point or two.
Across the season, the Nuggets have been the better team, even with horrible injury luck.
The Lakers had a negative point differential until the last two weeks and have struggled to beat good teams. So, I understand why there’s a perception that they are not on Denver’s level.
But, 3.5-point home underdogs? To a team that has had a hard time defensively? When the Lakers are coming off wins of their own vs. the Knicks and Wolves, breaking their streak of failing to beat teams over .500?
The Nuggets are in a bad travel spot after two grueling games vs. the Rockets and Spurs, after playing the Thunder on Monday.
This is Denver's fourth game in six nights, and it's a Saturday night primetime game that will have a lot of juice.
Then, there’s the matchup.
The Nuggets took the previous meeting in impressive fashion behind 56 points from Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic. The Lakers’ offense never found its footing, and Denver controlled throughout.
However, JJ Redick has shown a willingness and ability to build specific game plans to disrupt teams, and particularly Jokic.
Oddly enough though, he employed very little of that in the last game. He didn’t front as much as you would expect with Rui Hachimura in the post and didn’t send guard help low, which disrupts Jokic because of the chances of an offensive foul (little guys get to do whatever they want defensively against bigs).
The Lakers had a pretty vanilla game plan in that contest. I’m expecting a lot more bells and whistles in coverage tonight.
The Lakers’ defense is still vulnerable, especially to the league’s top-ranked offense, but disrupting specific mechanisms through matchups is a big leg-up in a regular season where no one does that.
The Nuggets struggle to contain on-ball creators, but they built an effective wall in the last matchup.
Austin Reaves should be better given who’s guarding him, and the Lakers will know they need to play Jaxson Hayes a lot in this matchup — who was good in his minutes and counters Jokic well with his rim running.
Then there’s this: the Lakers are three percentage points better in eFG% at home than they are on the road, and they are also better from three-point range.
If the Nuggets are going to load up on Luka Doncic, making perimeter shots will matter, and Denver gives up the seventh-most threes in the league.
I get it. It’s scary — but, as well as the Nuggets have played, the Lakers are playing better overall, they are at home, and they are catching points in this game.
I’ll grab the Lakers +3.5.
Over 244 (Lean)
I’m staying away from the total.
For starters, both teams are in the bottom-10 in pace.
For another, both teams have been playing marginally better defense against tough competition the last two weeks.
I project this total at 247, but this is a game with stakes — and those games typically go Under because the defensive effort goes up.
You can’t really play an Under here though, with how good both offenses are and how bad both defenses are.
The Occam’s Razor play is the Over, and I don’t blame you for looking to points.
I just don’t like where both teams are at, the spot, and the market movement — which already juiced this from a high starting point.
Rui Hachimura 2+ Three-Pointers Made
As I said, the Nuggets are a bottom-three team in opponent corner three-point attempts, and Hachimura is the Lakers' most consistent volume shooter from the corners.
Look for him to catch-and-hit threes off the gravity Doncic creates.
Picks: Lakers +2.5, Rui Hachimura 2+ Three-Pointers Made
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