PropBetGuy’s NBA Player Prop Pick For Heat vs. Celtics: Bet This Al Horford Over For Game 6 On Friday (May 27)
Elsa/Getty Images. Pictured: Al Horford
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Al Horford Points + Rebounds + Assists
|Prop||Over 22.5 PRA (-120)|
|Matchup||Heat–Celtics Game 6|
|Time||8:30 p.m. ET|
I’m not sure even the most optimistic Celtics fans could have predicted how vital Al Horford has been to Boston. After averaging 21.3 PRA per 29.1 minutes in the regular season, the 15-year veteran is up to 25.6 PRA per 36.5 minutes this postseason.
He has also fared well against the stellar defense of the Heat. In 242 combined regular-season and postseason minutes, Big Al has notched 25.3 PRA per 36 minutes, hitting this line in four of seven games.
With Robert Williams yet to see more than 28 minutes in a game this postseason, Horford has been relied on for big minutes. He’s averaging a combined 24.2 rebound and assist chances per game. His blended conversion rate on those chances (54%) has been below his season average (64%). I see room for positive regression, which would bode well to pair with the volume.
From a points perspective, we saw Miami look to close hard on Jayson Tatum’s and Jaylen Brown’s drives to the basket in Game 5, leaving Horford with open looks that he cashed in for 16 points.
While the Celtics lead the series 3-2, they are likely to lean on their core players for yet another massive workload to avoid a potential Game 7 in Miami. Horford should once again find himself in the thick of the action.
I have the Florida alum projected for 26 PRA.
Bet to: Over 23.5 PRA
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