Sacramento Kings 2021 NBA Win Total Odds & Pick: Expect More Regression for the Kings

Sacramento Kings 2021 NBA Win Total Odds & Pick: Expect More Regression for the Kings article feature image
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Abbie Parr/Getty Images. Pictured: Sacramento Kings star De’Aaron Fox.

Check out this post for updated season win total and this post for my other 29 season win total picks.

Kings Win Total Odds

Best Line
82-Game Projection
Over: 27.5 (PointsBet) [Bet Now]
31 Wins
Under: 28.5 (BetMGM) [Bet Now]
32 Wins

The Case for the Over

The Kings’ Pythagorean win percentage last season was 43.1%. This is a move to .405. Are Bogdan Bogdanovic and Harry Giles the difference in last year’s win total to this one?

The Kings have another year together, which is probably good.

Sacramento was 6-8 in games decided by three points or fewer, and 2-4 in overtime games.

De’Aaron Fox is excellent. Having a star of his caliber can lift things. This is just 30 games across an 82-game projection.

That’s all I got.

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The Case for the Under

Four of the top eight players for the Kings in on-court net rating, minimum 200 minutes, are gone. Alex Len, Kent Bazemore, Dewayne Dedmon, and Bogdan Bogdanovic all found other homes.

The Kings under Luke Walton have been a mess. Instead of coming in and pushing the fast-tempo team Dave Joerger had built to more of a chaotic speed, Walton tried to slow it down. He alienated Buddy Hield to the point where Hield was nearly traded, and now Hield is still on the team.

They lost veterans. They lost talent. They didn’t replace it. Their biggest offseason addition, Tyrese Haliburton, is a rookie who plays the same position as De’Aaron Fox

The wins in the West have to come from somewhere, and it sure looks like they’re coming from the Kings.

Sacramento Kings Win Total Bet

This team willingly took a step back to try and refocus on the future. There isn’t a player you would look at and say “that’s going to make them better this season” that they added. They added Hassan Whiteside, who I would describe as a net negative.

This looks more like a team in the 20’s and a high-lottery candidate.

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