Trail Blazers vs. Lakers Betting Odds & Pick: Consider These 3 Props

Trail Blazers vs. Lakers Odds

When the Blazers and Lakers meet up on Wednesday night, it’ll be a classic version of the early season game that seems to carry a bit of extra weight for both teams.

For the Lakers, they were eyeing this current nine-game stretch — that ends Wednesday night — as a potential turning point. After starting 2-8 against a tough schedule, they had a run of nine games where they were home for six, and two of those three road games were against the Spurs.

They’ve fared decently so far, going 5-3 in those eight games, but their most recent loss: at home against the Pacers on a buzzer beater from a relative no-name rookie, stings a lot.

If they came out of the stretch going 7-2, they’d be right back in the playoff picture. Now they’re staring down the potential of dropping to 7-12 before the schedule starts to toughen up again. It’s way too early to call curtains, but it would be a massive uphill battle.

On the other side of the ball, the Blazers find themselves right on the edge of the playoff picture after sitting atop the West not all that long ago. For a team that many saw as playing above their head, is this the moment they fall back to earth? They’ve lost six of their last eight (this piece is being written before the end of their Tuesday night matchup with the Clippers), more than doubling their season loss total in that time.

So who will right the ship and who will have a bit of panic settle in after Wednesday night’s matchup? Let’s take a look at the two teams.

Missing Dame Time

The Blazers' slide hasn’t entirely coincided with the absence of their face of the franchise, but Damian Lillard’s absence has seemed to expedite their fall back to earth.

The Blazers are 4-5 in their games without Lillard this season, and while Anfernee Simons has filled in admirably, the team just seems to be lacking that extra oomph that teams need in this surprisingly deep league in 2022-23. Mostly recently, they have a trio of losses to Milwaukee, Cleveland and Brooklyn — three teams with stars closer in caliber to Lillard than Simons.

Now, all those losses came not just on the road, but well off the West Coast. On Wednesday, they’ll be on a back to back but at least they'll be on their preferred coast after a brief pit stop at home Tuesday night.

With Lillard out, Simons has indeed increased his production, averaging 25.5 points and 5.5 assists per game — both well up from his season average. That still leaves plenty of Lillard points and assists to be covered for, and Jerami Grant has been a big part of picking up that slack — and the books aren’t noticing his boost as much as they have Simons'.

Simons’ stats props are mostly leveled out to where they should be, but at least before Tuesday’s game, Grant’s assist totals we’re still too low. In the nine games without Lillard, Grant is averaging 3.4 assists per game and has cleared three or more in seven of those nine games. However, before Tuesday’s game, the books were still putting up 2.5 and it opened with only a bit of juice to the over (and subsequently got bet up but not to 3.5).

This opening line will depend a bit on how Grant does Tuesday night, but if the number comes out at 2.5 juiced to the over — or even 3.5 even money — given his bump in production in that category, plus the fact that the Lakers play at such a fast pace, it’s still a recommended play.

AD + Bron = Not What It Used to Be

If someone told you before the season that a healthy Lakers team lost at home to the Indiana Pacers, you’d have guessed it was one of those one-off fluke games mid-season, but watching the game it really wasn’t that. This Laker team just isn’t it. (Also, Tyrese Haliburton is the G.O.A.T.)

As much as it kills this lifelong LeBron James homer to say it, he’s just not the same player he was, even last year. And of course the team surrounding these two stars has been systematically gutted, leaving a team that would shock me to even make the play-in in a very deep and talented Western Conference.

That being said, this is the moment to prove that take wrong. It’s a game like this: At home, against a team sliding down the standings and playing on the second night of a back to back, that is an absolute must-win for L.A.

And that’s why this spread looks pretty good to me.

To me this is going to come down to pace. The Lakers want to push, while the Blazers will want to slow things down. Given Portland's struggle at times against opponents in transition, I'd lean to the the Lakers, but that 5.5 number is no joke given how bad this team has looked even when healthy.

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Trail Blazers-Lakers Pick

Given that I don’t see any edges on the spread or total, unsurprisingly I’m taking us into the land of Joe Dellera again, with a couple player props.

I mentioned the Grant assist prop, but I also like a few on the Lakers side.

Anthony Davis has been absolutely mauling the glass of late, but now that the books are at least coming close to set the right lines for him, I want to tweak the bet a bit. I like adding his assists to the mix, given that Davis has had four and six assists in the two games back with James. Look for a rebounds + assists line around 15.5, and that’s an over he's hit his last seven games — often with solid clearance. My only fear here is the Blazers' pace maybe being better for some unders for the Lakers.

If you want an under, I’d look at James’ assists. After a fast start in that category, he really hasn’t been running up big assist totals, with totals of: 5, 3, and 3 in his recent return. He didn't top five in either of his games before the injury either, but the books are giving under 5.5 plus money. That's fair given the season as a whole, but mix in the Blazers slow pace, and it's a least worth a look.

Pick: Jerami Grant over 2.5 assists (to -150, or over 3.5 to -115); Anthony Davis over 15.5 rebounds + assists (to -140 or over 16.5 -105)
Lean: LeBron James under 5.5 assists (to even money)

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