Warriors vs Kings Pick, Prediction Tonight | Best In-Season Tournament Bet

Pick: Kings -2

The Warriors welcome back Draymond Green for this game after his five game suspension for putting Rudy Gobert in a headlock. His return is instrumental to the Warriors' success given his offensive playmaking and his defensive instincts. This season, the Warriors have been worse with Green on the floor but that's based on a small sample size — he has been a positive contributor nearly every year of his career. His return will almost certainly have a positive impact on both ends for the Warriors.

What has been more concerning for the Warriors this season is that Klay Thompson and Andrew Wiggins have been brutal overall. Thompson looks to have lost a step and Wiggins looks like a shell of himself compared to previous seasons. Wiggins is averaging just 11.8 points, 4.1 rebounds, and 1.1 assists per game and he has seen his shooting percentage drop precipitously to 48% on 2s and just 25.5% from the 3-point line, per Basketball Reference. This decline is not one the Warriors can afford and he is a team-worst -19.7 points per 100 possessions, per Cleaning the Glass.

One thing that will be interesting to see in this game is how the Warriors elect to attack the Kings. In the playoffs, the Warriors spammed pick-and-roll to get the Kings into rotation. This season, I don't know if the Kings respect the Warriors' shooting outside of Stephen Curry as much, especially with Wiggins' struggles from deep. One player to watch is Dario Saric, who can stretch the floor a bit for the Warriors.

This season, the only Warrior to score more than 20 points against the Kings in two games is Curry with 41 points once and 21 points in the other game. While the Warriors won both games, one of those had the Kings missing their star point guard, De'Aaron Fox.

The Kings are likely to be without Keegan Murray (back – Doubtful) for this game and his shooting will be missed. Despite that, the Kings have been incredible with Fox this season. The Kings are 7-3 with Fox compared to 2-3 without him and they are scoring 122 points per game, a 20 point increase from the games without him. Fox is their clear leader and has taken a step forward this season averaging 29.9 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 6.0 assists per game. Fox's points prop is set at 27.5 and that's a nice look in a must-win game against a team he's already dropped 39 against this season.

One of the issues the Kings will have if Murray is indeed unable to play is their spacing. Murray is instrumental to their offensive spacing and his defense has improved enough that he's a valuable contributor on both ends of the floor. Without him, the Kings have had to rely more on Chris Duarte and Kevin Huerter, neither of whom are defensive stalwarts. This game will come down to offense and who can control the glass.

One player who should excel is Domantas Sabonis. Since he joined the Kings, he has recorded 14, 14, 22, 18, and 11 rebounds when he has played against Kevon Looney and the Warriors. The 11 rebound game is from November and he had 20 Rebound Chances. With the expectation being that this should be a close game anyway but it is important for the tournament, I'd expect Sabonis to play significant minutes. His rebounds prop opened at 13.5 rebounds — this is a bit high for my liking as a baseline prop but might sprinkle (0.1 Units) some higher alts such as 17+ (+300) and 20+ (+925) both on Bet365.

This game is features two teams that are fairly evenly matched on paper as evidenced by the short spread. They both have Net Ratings of +0.2 on the season, but the Kings are the team I trust in this matchup. Sacramento has had an excellent offense with Fox on the floor scoring 118.4 points per 100 possessions, which is slightly better than Curry's minutes with the Warriors who score 116.5 points per 100, per Cleaning the Glass.

This will be a battle between two of the game's top point guards but this is a spot that favors the Kings. The Warriors have the 21st ranked eFG% and the underlying metrics suggest they have the worst expected eFG%. This is a far cry from the team that was third in eFG% just one year ago, per Cleaning the Glass.

This iteration of the Warriors is not the same version that took down the Kings in six games in the playoffs — they are a year older, and they simply have not performed at the same level.

I'll back the Kings at home who have the opportunity to avenge that playoff loss and advance in the NBA In-Season Tournament in front of their fans. Be sure to shop for the best line on our NBA odds page, which ranges from Kings -1 to -2.

Pick: Kings -2 or better