Warriors vs Lakers Pick: Expert Makes Game 4 Prediction on Monday Night
Dustin Bradford/Getty Images. Pictured: Draymond Green.
Warriors vs. Lakers Odds
-110 / -110
-110 / -110
This is a bounce-back spot for the Dubs.
Per our Action Labs data, the Warriors are 25-14 (64%) ATS in the postseason following a loss under Steve Kerr, including 15-6 (71%) against the spread (ATS) off a double-digit loss and 5-2 (71%) ATS coming off a loss of 20 or more.
The Warriors lost the adjustment game in Game 3, with the Lakers putting Austin Reaves on Stephen Curry, Jared Vanderbilt on Draymond Green, and Anthony Davis on JayMichael Green. That allowed Davis to hang back in the paint while Vanderbilt would switch onto Stephen Curry in Curry-Green pick-and-rolls.
But the Warriors aren’t going to let the Lakers get away with Reaves as the primary defender on Curry for long. Per NBA.com, Curry is shooting 50.0% from the field and 62.5% from deep when guarded by Reaves, putting up 30 points on Reaves in 11:41 of game time being guarded by him.
Curry has been quiet in this series with just 23.3 points per game, and he is yet to put up a 30-point game this series after doing so in five of seven first-round games and 11 of 22 games last postseason. Curry will likely go more iso-heavy and post his best game of the series with his team’s back to the wall.
The Warriors also could get a boost from referee Scott Foster. Dubbed “The Extender,” teams down 2-1 in Game 4 have gone 12-8 (60%) ATS since 2010 with Foster refereeing. The Lakers’ edge in free throws per game through three games (27.7-13.0) may not be as pronounced in Game 4.
Regardless of who is playing or who is reffing, teams down 2-1 in Round 2 or later tend to be underrated by the market. Per our Action Labs data, playoff teams facing a 2-1 deficit in Game 4 are 60-38-2 (61%) ATS from Round 2-on since 2005, covering 61% of the time both as an underdog and as a favorite.
Raybon’s Pick: Warriors +2.5 (Bet to +1)
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