The pressure is mounting this Sunday as many teams are playing to keep their seasons alive. We have plenty of early elimination games on tap that not only offer betting value but also plenty of intriguing drama.
Let’s dive into my NCAA baseball picks and college baseball predictions for the Regional games on Sunday, May 31.
NCAA Baseball Picks, Predictions
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that Action Network's Doug Ziefel is targeting from NCAA Tournament games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1 p.m. | |
  | 2 p.m. | |
  | 4 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Arkansas vs. Northeastern
The Razorbacks threw their best shot at the host Kansas Jayhawks with ace Hunter Dietz on the mound. However, it was the bats that came up short as the Hogs only produced three runs in the loss.
Now their backs are against the wall as they face Northeastern in an elimination game with the opportunity to take on Kansas another time on the line. We should fully expect the Arkansas lineup to wake up here, as the Huskies may have contained Missouri State, but with all their top arms burned through the first two days, their staff is due for a bunch of regression.
We know the Hogs have power throughout their lineup, ranking 22nd in homers on the season. This is the matchup where they flash it and rebuild their momentum with the goal of avenging their loss to Kansas.
Back Arkansas to cover the run line.
Pick: Arkansas -3.5 (-115)
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St. John's vs. Northern Illinois
Next is a matchup I had targeted from my Tallahassee Regional preview. While I expected the Johnnies to stay hot after their conference tournament run, taking down the Florida State Seminoles was not expected.
However, it's only given them more confidence as they head into this matchup against Northern Illinois as rightful favorites. The Huskies pulled off an upset of their own against Coastal Carolina, but the difference between these two teams is the quality of contact.
St. John's run has been spurred by their pitching staff, which excels at generating soft contact and keeping the ball in the park. Northern Illinois has largely been a team unreliant on the longball, but their ability to generate traffic on the basepaths will be suppressed.
On the other side, it's the opposite. The Huskies' pitching staff allows a great deal of hard contact, ranking in the bottom 60 nationally in quality of contact allowed. This will boost a St. John's lineup that puts the ball in play a ton.
Before this game got rained out, St. John's was a slight underdog yesterday. Well, the market movement was factored into this line today, and RoadtoCFB was on it. Here are his thoughts on this matchup as they carry over today:
"We’ve got ourselves a "wrong team favored" alert!
Taking the aggregate of several college baseball power ratings (KPI, DSR, PEAR Ratings and more), St. John’s has a win expectancy of 56% (fair value: -127). Instead, Northern Illinois is the favored team.
The Johnnies just took down Florida State last night, 6-5, thanks to a huge eighth-inning push capped off by a ninth-inning RBI single from Jayder Raifstanger. Cue Parker Fleming’s American Psycho meme.
St. John’s needed only 3 2/3 innings from its bullpen, throwing Victor Frederick and closer Evan Hoeckele.
In comparison, NIU went to the pen after just 2 2/3 innings, throwing all three weekend starters and its top reliever. The Huskies would be foolish to throw any of them again, considering they have two losses to play with.
I like St. John’s position more here, and the ratings side with the No. 4 seed in this 3-4 matchup in Tallahassee".
Pick: St. John's ML -135
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Jacksonville State vs. Virginia
Yesterday, the expectation was for Virginia's already depleted pitching staff to get whalloped by Southern Miss. While that did happen, the Cavaliers threw plenty of haymakers of their own as they outslugged the Eagles in a 15-11 victory.
This afternoon, they are going to need to hit again with their backs against the wall. They are going to face a Jacksonville State staff that impressively finished the country at ninth in team ERA and 23rd in SIERA, but they have one flaw that could prove fatal.
The Gamecocks home run to flyball ratio sits at 10%, which means lineups with plenty of power, like Virginia's, can do damage if they put the ball in the air.
However, much like yesterday, we should see Jacksonville State fire back as the Cavaliers' pitching staff is running on fumes and has a home run to flyball ratio of 12.2.
The ball should fly all over the yard as these clubs look to slug their way for a chance to knock off the No. 4 seed Little Rock.
Pick: Over 13.5 (-105) | Play to 14.5
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