The Baylor Bears play the Minnesota Golden Gophers in the College Basketball Crown quarterfinals from Las Vegas, Nevada. Tip-off is set for 10:30 p.m. ET on Fox Sports 1.
Baylor is favored by -3.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -190. The total is set at 148.5 points.
Here’s my Baylor vs. Minnesota predictions and college basketball picks for April 1, 2026.
Baylor vs Minnesota Prediction
My Pick: Under 148.5
My Baylor vs Minnesota best bet is on the under. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Baylor vs Minnesota Odds
| Baylor Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 148.5 -110o / -110u | -190 |
| Minnesota Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 148.5 -110o / -110u | +158 |
- Baylor vs Minnesota spread: Baylor -3.5
- Baylor vs Minnesota over/under: 148.5 points
- Baylor vs Minnesota moneyline: Baylor -190, Minnesota +158
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Baylor vs Minnesota College Basketball Betting Preview
Baylor battled through an up-and-down season, which saw the Bears take advantage of a favorable non-conference schedule while starting 10-2.
Baylor could never put together much momentum in league play. After going 6-12 in the Big 12, the Bears were bounced in the first round of the Big 12 Tournament to finish 16-16 overall.
Four Bears averaged double figures in scoring, led by Cameron Carr, who averaged 19.2 points per game. Yessoufou Tounde scored 17.8, while Obi Agbim and Isaac Williams IV each averaged 10 points as they split point-guard duties.
Baylor is going to seek to get to the rim and find efficient paint touches. However, the Bears really don’t have an effective player at the four-spot, so settling for and missing a high number of mid-range jumpers has often been the result.
Baylor does rebound well on the offensive end and should have success on the glass in this game.
The defense was below average this season for Baylor, which often played without a high amount of effort or intensity on this end of the floor. Baylor has struggled rebounding at times this season, and those extra possessions led to the Bears giving up a lot from behind the arc.
This will be key against Minnesota, as the Gophers aren't afraid to let it rip from deep.
On the flip side, Minnesota struggled through a disappointing 15-17 season in year one under Niko Medved.
Flashes of brilliance were shown, though, as the Gophers routinely played up against stiffer competition well. Close losses against Wisconsin, Illinois and Michigan — coupled with wins over Michigan State, Iowa and Indiana — showed that this team had pieces in place to be a dangerous out in Big Ten play.
However, the consistency wasn't there nearly enough to see the wins stack up.
Cade Tyson is the leading scorer for Minnesota, as he averages 19.6 points per game. Tyson is a sniper from deep while making 42% from beyond the arc. He can score from anywhere on the court, including the foul line, where he shoots 82% for the season.
Jaylen Crocker-Johnson averages 13.4 points while Langston Reynolds and Isaac Asuma each average 11 for the Gophers. Asuma, Tyson and Bobby Durkin are deep threats for the quick-triggering Gophers, who shoot nearly half their shots from deep.
The Gophers played some pretty good defense in spurts this season, but the better efforts were certainly realized when playing at home.
The defense did force long possessions and often saw those possessions end in contested low percentage shots. Minnesota defends well without fouling, but this is a weak rebounding team, which is something to watch when squaring off against Baylor in this game.
This line opened with Baylor pegged as 3.5-point favorites with a total set at 148.5. I like the under here.
Minnesota was 2-13 away from home this season and played nowhere close to its best basketball while traveling. Neutral-site losses plagued the non-conference portion of the Gophers' schedule, and the offense played very poorly away from Williams Arena.
Having three weeks off and playing in an unfamiliar arena won't help the offensive road woes.
The Gophers are going to compete hard, with NIL money and a championship on the line, and they're going to play slow. Minnesota was the fourth-slowest team in the country this season, with games routinely played at 60 possessions or less.
If the shots aren’t falling, we should see plenty of “one-and-done” possessions for Minnesota, which was one of the worst offensive rebounding teams in the conference this season.
Baylor ramped up its tempo significantly this season, but we saw the Bears get slowed down the second half of league play. We didn’t see the run outs as frequently and Baylor was slowed down by Houston, West Virginia and Iowa State among other conference teams.
This offense doesn't have enough consistency in its outside shooting, where Baylor ranked 148th nationally this season. Turnovers were also a problem for Baylor at times, and if it's careless with the basketball against Minnesota, the Gophers will take advantage.
I think Minnesota will control the pace, and the time off for both teams will create a situation where a slow start is expected. The line is telling here in that Vegas thinks the Gophers have enough to hang around. I expect Minnesota to keep the possession count low.
Both of these defenses are solid at not sending their opponents to the stripe. Expect some cold shooting, limited free throws and a game that goes down to the wire. Regardless, this one should finish under the posted total.
My Pick: Under 148.5
