As conference play rolls on, I've got a few power-conference matchups on my radar for this Wednesday, alongside a pivotal battle in the Missouri Valley.
Read on for my college basketball best bets and NCAAB expert picks for January 28th.
College Basketball Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 PM | |
  | 7 PM | |
  | 8 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Tennessee vs. Georgia Pick
Due to the harrowing weather across the Southern states, this game was delayed from Tuesday to Wednesday.
In a vacuum, I always think that helps the home team, as they are dealing with fewer logistical nightmares — they can sleep at home and play in their home gym amid the mess outside.
The spot sets up extremely well for the Dawgs at home.
Georgia collapsed at Texas over the weekend, losing the second half 57-30 en route to a 20-point loss.
On the other hand, Tennessee pulled off a crucial road win at Alabama, though the Tide were very shorthanded without two key starters.
That sets us up with a strong buy-low on Georgia and a sell-high on Tennessee.
The “spot tax” is factored into the line here, as both KenPom and Bart Torvik set this number at Georgia -1.
But I think the matchup gives me enough of an edge to back Georgia at the current number.
The Bulldogs have significantly more offensive balance, a luxury against a Tennessee team that is hugely reliant on two creators (Ja’Kobi Gillespie and Nate Ament). The Dawgs’ perimeter pressure can get to a Vols’ offense that consistently makes baffling decisions with the ball (281st in turnover rate, per KenPom), and those miscues will fuel Georgia’s feverish transition offense.
The concern is Tennessee’s offensive rebounding. Somto Cyril must hold up on the glass, and his teammates must help him to offset Georgia’s dismal 306th-ranked defensive rebounding rate.
With that gamble in mind, I will back Georgia in a tough spot for the visiting Vols.
Pick: Georgia -3 or Better
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USC vs. Iowa Pick
The Hawkeyes have excelled at home as a big favorite this year, having gone 6-3 ATS as a double-digit favorite.
Ben McCollum’s meticulous execution can drive any opponent nuts.
Of course, USC is not the kind of Quad-4 foe against which Iowa has gotten fat and happy.
However, the Trojans are on the second leg of a Midwest road swing and could be prone to a slight letdown in effort after an impressive road win at Wisconsin on Sunday.
They are already a volatile team due to their reliance on Chad Baker-Mazara, plus incorporating Kam Woods (midseason addition) and Alijah Arenas (third game of the season after recovering from a torn meniscus). Both players have been abominable so far, underscored by their combined 0-for-22 mark from deep.
Iowa will punish any undisciplined shot selection or decision-making. USC can be prone to both, and the Trojans rank 14th in the Big Ten in turnover rate in league play.
Iowa’s defense, on the other hand, leads the conference in forced turnover rate defensively (sixth nationally in that category). I expect the Trojans to struggle mightily against Iowa’s smart pressure.
This number feels high given Iowa's pace. But with some easy baskets via steals and the potential letdown for an emotional USC team, I’ll back the Hawkeyes in frigid Iowa City with a California team in town.
Pick: Iowa -11 or Better
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Belmont vs. Valparaiso Pick
Belmont is ascending back to where it belongs: atop the MVC standings.
Two early slip-ups against Indiana State (by one in overtime) and Southern Illinois (by one) put the Bruins behind the eight ball in the conference title race, but they have since clawed back to a tie atop the league.
However, this is a challenging spot against an opponent that has proven it can play with the Bruins.
The first matchup in Nashville was tightly contested, with Belmont escaping with a 78-74 home victory. The box score paints a picture of an extremely even matchup: no extreme 3-point luck, no domination in shot volume for either side. In fact, Valpo probably wins outright if it shoots better than 8-for-15 from the charity stripe.
Additionally, Belmont could be looking ahead to a Saturday showdown with Murray State. The Racers and the Bruins are tied in the MVC with identical 8-2 records.
Lastly, Belmont point guard Nic McClain still has not returned from a mysterious injury that has had him sidelined since New Year’s Day. His absence has not sunk Belmont’s prolific offense, but it is another slight edge nudging me to the side of the home dog.
I wish I were getting +5, but I will take this one down to +4, given that the first meeting was even and there's potential lookahead for Belmont.
Pick: Valpo +4 or Better
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