With UConn's 19-point comeback against Duke on Sunday, Dan Hurley has gotten his team to the Final Four in three of the last four years. Alex Karaban is the only player that's been there for the entire journey, and I expect him to make his presence felt on Saturday.
In the nightcap, Michigan and Arizona will square off in one of the most anticipated Final Four matchups in recent memory. Roddy Gayle Jr. and Elliot Cadeau are a pair of Wolverines that I have my eye on.
So, here's my Final Four player props for Saturday, April 4.
Final Four Player Props for Saturday, April 4
- Alex Karaban Over 12.5 Points (+100 · Fanatics)
- Elliot Cadeau Under 11.5 Points (-112 · bet365)
- Roddy Gayle Jr. Over 6.5 Points (+102, bet365)
Illinois vs. UConn Player Prop Pick
After averaging 9.3 points per game as a true freshman, Karaban has averaged at least 13 points a night in each of the last three seasons.
With his line at 12.5 points, Karaban hitting his average would get us to the window.
In UConn's comeback against Duke, it was rather surprising that he only scored five points. He's still averaging 17.7 points per game in the NCAA Tournament this year, though, and has gone over this line in three of four games.
That's not surprising given Karaban's propensity to rise to the occasion and make big shots when the Huskies need him to. In 18 career NCAA Tournament games, Karaban is averaging 11.1 points, scoring 13 points in six of the last eight.
While the Huskies dropped 73 against Duke, they should find an easier time finding success offensively against Illinois.
That will benefit Karaban as well, and he's scored in double figures in each of his games against Illinois in his career.
He'll look to do much of his damage from beyond the arc, as he's made three triples or more in five of his last 10 games.
Pick: Alex Karaban Over 12.5 Points
Arizona vs. Michigan Player Prop Pick
Michigan and Arizona may have the two best frontcourts in the country, and that may decide the winner of this game.
However, Arizona has an edge on the perimeter, led by Brayden Burries and Jaden Bradley. Cadeau is one of the Michigan guards they'll be tasking with slowing down.
Cadeau has shot the ball with more confidence this season, hitting 37.7% on 4.3 3-point attempts per game. However, he's still averaged just 10.2 points per game this season and 10.5 per game in the NCAA Tournament.
Some teams are still comfortable letting Cadeau shoot uncontested from the perimeter. It remains to be seen if Wildcats head coach Tommy Lloyd is comfortable with that strategy, but the Wolverines' balanced attack is something he'll have to contend with.
Cadeau is one of four Wolverines averaging in double figures, and Trey McKinney is essentially a fifth at 9.8 points per game. That's contributed to Cadeau scoring 12 points or more in just 15 of 38 (39%) games and in two of four NCAA Tournament games.
Some notable games that Cadeau went under his points line include five points against Gonzaga, seven points against Nebraska, eight points against Duke and two points in one of the matchups against Michigan State.
Additionally, Cadeau was hospitalized earlier this week after he had an allergic reaction. While he's doing fine and is still expected to play, he may stay under this line if he's still feeling any ill effects and has his minutes limited at all.
Pick: Elliot Cadeau Under 11.5 Points
Arizona vs. Michigan Player Prop Pick
As a Michigan fan, the Gayle experience can be a frustrating watch.
However, he also has shown a knack for showing up in key spots. Last season, he scored 26 points in the second round against Texas A&M to help Michigan advance to the Sweet 16.
This season, he's taken a step back to some of the Wolverines' new additions, but he's still played a pivotal role.
In four NCAA Tournament games, Gayle has scored 10.3 points per game, going over this line in three of them. That includes 14 points against Howard and 16 points against Alabama. That's brought his average to 7.4 points per game for the season.
Between the Big Ten and NCAA Tournaments, Gayle has averaged nine points per game while at Michigan, scoring seven points in eight of 13 games across the last two seasons.
Gayle has played 20 minutes in each of Michigan's last four games, but he may need to be efficient with his opportunities. He's averaging 5.8 field goal attempts per game while shooting 65.2% in the NCAA Tournament.
However, between the tempo both teams play at and more attention drawn to other players, Gayle may get some open looks or easy buckets in transition.
If he knocks them down, he'll get to seven points once again.
Pick: Roddy Gayle Jr. Over 6.5 Points
