The Houston Cougars take on the TCU Horned Frogs in Fort Worth, Texas, on Wednesday, Jan. 28. Tip-off is set for 9 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Houston is favored by 7.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -320. TCU, meanwhile, enters as a +6.5 underdog and is +260 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 137.5 total points.
Here’s my Houston vs. TCU prediction and college basketball picks for Wednesday, January 28.
Houston vs TCU Prediction
My Pick: Under 137.5 (Play to 135.5)
My Houston vs TCU best bet is on the under. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Houston vs. TCU Odds
| Houston Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 137.5 -110o / -110u | -320 |
| TCU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 137.5 -110o / -110u | +260 |
- Houston vs TCU Spread: Houston -7.5
- Houston vs TCU Over/Under: 137.5 points
- Houston vs TCU Moneyline: Houston -320, TCU +260
Houston vs TCU College Basketball Betting Preview
Houston Basketball
Houston finds itself in unfamiliar territory coming off a loss, and the circumstances around that defeat were even rarer.
Not only did Houston lose at Texas Tech on Saturday, but the Cougars defense was outright torched, surrendering 1.38 points per possession.
To put that in perspective, the last time an opponent cracked 1.30 PPP against a Kelvin Sampson defense was March 2, 2024. For a program built around a stout defensive identity, that was a genuine anomaly.
On the bright side, the offense was marvelous. Houston scored efficiently, generating quality shots and largely dictating terms on that end.
The centerpiece was Kingston Flemings, who has fully crossed the line from breakout star to bona fide superstar. His 42-point, six-assist eruption on 15-of-26 shooting was a tour de force. He was dominant off the bounce, confident from deep and unguardable late in possessions.
The supporting cast is rounding into form as well.
Emanuel Sharp remains a reliable two-way weapon on the perimeter, while Milos Uzan is starting to find his rhythm, knocking down 43% of his 3s in Big 12 play to this point. When those three are cooking, Houston’s offensive ceiling rises.
The frontcourt, meanwhile, is struggling. Scoring punch has been limited, and the defensive rebounding has been an issue at times.
JoJo Tugler oddly owns a higher offensive rebound rate than defensive rebound rate, while much of the burden falls on Chris Cenac, who continues to search for comfort and efficiency on the offensive end.
Expect the defensive focus to sharpen quickly — I would not have wanted to be in Houston’s practices this week. Pairing that with a Flemings-led attack puts Houston squarely in the national title picture.
TCU Basketball
TCU still has everything to play for this year, with the NCAA Tournament still a realistic goal to end the year.
The last week has gone a long way toward stabilizing a season that briefly looked like it might slip away. After a brutal four-game losing streak early in Big 12 play, the Horned Frogs have responded with two strong performances, highlighted by an impressive road win at Baylor.
That bounce-back was vital for their résumé math, and it sets up a massive opportunity Wednesday night to meaningfully move the needle against Houston.
A key reason for optimism is health.
David Punch missed the last game due to illness, but he’s expected back, and his presence is critical. Punch gives TCU real physicality in the paint, both as a finisher and a tone-setter defensively and on the glass.
When he’s on the floor, the Frogs are 12.4 points better per 100 possessions, per CBB Analytics.
He’s joined in the frontcourt by Xavier Edmonds and Micah Robinson, a pair of burly, versatile forwards who fit perfectly in Jamie Dixon’s preferred mold.
Over the years, he’s had a bevy of switchable, physical forwards who are willing to do the dirty work while offering some offensive pop.
Offensively, TCU continues to lean into pace and pressure.
The Frogs are happy to run, ranking 64th nationally in offensive average possession length, and much of that tempo is driven by the dual-point-guard lineup of Brock Harding and Jayden Pierre.
That pairing keeps defenses stretched, accelerates decision-making, and allows TCU to attack before opponents can get fully set.
TCU only has a couple of big opportunities left to fundamentally alter its postseason outlook. This matchup is one of them, so the Frogs should be locked in from the jump.
Houston vs. TCU Betting Analysis
Previous matchups between these two push me toward the under.
Since Houston joined the Big 12, all three meetings have gone under the total, with the last two — 60-45 and 65-46 Houston victories — evidencing TCU’s struggles to crack the Cougars’ defensive scheme.
The Cougars completely take away the transition game and challenge everything around the rim. Both of those factors thwart key TCU strengths.
Those prior two matchups had 59 and 62 possessions, respectively, which trend under the 64-possession projection from KenPom for this clash.
Add in the major defensive collapse from Houston in the last game — plus knowing what Sampson likely put his team through in practice as a result — and I expect a home-run effort from Houston defensively.
I think Houston would be a strong wager as well, as the Cougars are a terrific road team due to their style.
They're 7-3 against the number in their last 10 true road games, as the defense and rebounding consistently travel and keep the opposing crowd out of the game.
Ultimately, though, I landed on the under as my favorite wager for this one.
The Cougars should keep the game in the half-court (even with Flemings’ end-to-end speed), and TCU lacks the firepower to pull off what Texas Tech did against this defense.
Pick: Under 137.5 (Play to 135.5)
