Another day, another top-10 college basketball clash.
The No. 7 Purdue Boilermakers (21-4, 11-3 Big Ten) play host to the No. 1 Michigan Wolverines (24-1, 14-1 Big Ten) in a Big Ten battle on Tuesday night.
With a one-possession spread, this game might just give us a taste of what's to come when March Madness rolls around.
Our college basketball writers came through with four picks for Tuesday night's clash, so let's dive into how to bet Purdue vs. Michigan and our college basketball picks for Feb. 17.
Purdue vs. Michigan Picks, Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today's Purdue vs. Michigan matchup. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6:30 p.m. | |
| 6:30 p.m. | |
| 6:30 p.m. | |
| 6:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Purdue vs. Michigan Pick: Moneyline Best Bet
By Sean Paul
I’ll take the Boilermakers with a plus-money moneyline at home.
Beyond the “home-court 'dog in a tough environment narrative,” the primary angle is the matchup advantage favoring Purdue.
Last month, Illinois exposed an issue Purdue has with its two big lineups. Oscar Cluff and Trey Kaufman-Renn can be a devastating frontline for opponents in the right matchup — and this is one of them.
Michigan is elite defensively, boasting the nation’s most efficient defense, per KenPom. It also just brutalizes teams with its length.
The Wolverines dominate inside the arc on both ends, holding teams to 42% shooting and shooting 62% on their own goal.
In contrast, Purdue has the second-best offense in America, per KenPom.
The best thing the Boilers can do here is slow down the game. Keeping Michigan to a half-court game is the perfect way to win.
Plus, Purdue’s ability to crash the offensive boards (35.8%) and limit turnovers (13.9%) is a huge aspect of this being a half-court game.
Braden Smith will be the best guard on the floor in this one. He’ll need to step up and make a big impact with his ability to attack switches in ball screens and take over when needed.
Give me the home 'dog.
Pick: Purdue ML +130 (Play to +105)
Purdue vs. Michigan Pick: ML Prediction
By Evan Abrams
Tuesday's top-10 clash between Purdue and Michigan fits a historically profitable betting system from our Bet Labs database called "Power Five Outright Love."
In college basketball conference play, home teams from Power Five leagues consistently hold a measurable advantage when facing comparable or slightly weaker opponents.
With spreads in the competitive range, these teams benefit from strong home environments, experienced coaching and familiarity with conference officiating and travel rhythms.
Games played in the heart of the season, especially January through March, often feature elevated defensive effort and crowd intensity, which amplify the edge for established programs protecting home court.
Bettors often underestimate this advantage when lines remain modest, yet the combination of talent, motivation and situational stability makes these home moneyline spots highly reliable within major conference play.
This system boasts an all-time record of 3312-1645, good for a win percentage of 67%.
Pick: Purdue ML +130
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Purdue vs. Michigan Pick: Player Prop Pick
By Doug Ziefel
Fletcher Loyer has been a staple in the Boilermakers' backcourt now for years. He has flashed plenty of scoring upside with his potential to get hot from beyond the arc.
This season, Loyer is shooting 39% from long range on an average of 6.6 attempts per game. Making over 2.5 3s per game is great, but when 3-pointers make up over two-thirds of his average field-goal attempts, it’s clear that his scoring output is very volatile.
Tonight, Loyer will face a Michigan team that has been excellent at defending the arc, ranking seventh in 3-point percentage allowed.
Additionally, the Wolverines have excelled in that area lately. No team has shot better than 34% from downtown since Wisconsin in January, Michigan’s lone loss of the season.
In one of the toughest possible matchups, Loyer’s ceiling is capped. Even if this winds up being an uptempo matchup, the lack of efficiency won’t make up for the added volume from the perimeter.
Fade Loyer tonight.
Pick: Fletcher Loyer Under 13.5 Points (-110 · Play to -120)
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Purdue vs. Michigan: Player Prop Best Bet
By Ryan Minion
I backed the Wolverines on the moneyline in my full-game preview, but I also have another great betting angle for Tuesday night’s Big Ten clash.
While Purdue will be playing on its home floor in West Lafayette, I expect head coach Matt Painter’s bunch to really struggle on the glass against a massive Michigan frontcourt that ranks inside the top 10 in the nation in total rebounding rate.
Behind Michigan’s stellar defensive frontcourt that features the likes of Yaxel Lendeborg, Morez Johnson Jr. and Aday Mara, Purdue forward Trey Kaufman-Renn faces his toughest matchup of the season.
While TKR’s versatility with the ball in his hands may lead to a solid scoring performance, his excellent rebounding figures this season should regress Tuesday night against Michigan.
I'll back Purdue’s Trey Kauffman-Renn to go under his rebounding prop of 8.5.
Pick: Trey Kaufman-Renn Under 8.5 Rebounds (-110 · Play to -125)
