The Iowa State Cyclones take on the Cincinnati Bearcats in Cincinnati, Ohio. Tip-off is set for 2 p.m. ET on Peacock.
Iowa State is favored by 6.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -300. The total is set at 139.5 points.
Here’s my Iowa State vs. Cincinnati prediction and college basketball picks for January 17, 2026.
Iowa State vs Cincinnati Prediction
My Pick: Under 140.5 (Play to 137)
My Iowa State vs Cincinnati best bet is on the under. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Iowa State vs. Cincinnati Odds
| Iowa State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 139.5 -110o / -110u | -300 |
| Cincinnati Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 139.5 -110o / -110u | +240 |
- Iowa State vs Cincinnati spread: Iowa State -6.5
- Iowa State vs Cincinnati over/under: 139.5 points
- Iowa State vs Cincinnati moneyline: Iowa State -300, Cincinnati +240
Iowa State vs Cincinnati College Basketball Betting Preview
Iowa State Basketball
Iowa State has a real opportunity on Saturday to rebound from a horrific performance at Kansas its last time out.
Iowa State didn't shoot the ball particularly well and its defense was taken advantage of by the Jayhawks, who overwhelmed the Cyclones in the first half while building a 26-point lead.
Non-conference thrashings of Creighton, Syracuse and Purdue seem like a far distant memory, but this team does have the talent to regroup and go on a deep run in league play.
Offensively, the Cyclones are very balanced and very efficient. Consistency from the starting five has been huge, as the Cyclones aren't overly deep in the bench.
Joshua Jefferson can create in a variety of different ways and his 17.4 points per game lead the offense. Milan Momcilovic has been an incredible 3-point sniper for the Clones, as he has twice as many attempts as anyone else on the team and is knocking down the outside shot at a clip of 54%.
Tamin Lipsey, Blake Buchanan and Killyan Toure round out the reliability in the starting five, as each of these players contributes nine or more points per game. This is a strong offensive bunch that protects the basketball and can pile on the scoring once they get hot.
Defensively, the Cyclones can ramp up the pressure better than anyone in the country, as Iowa State ranks third nationally in defensive turnover percentage.
The entire unit is excellent at anticipating ball movement and getting in the way of passing lanes, which has created 153 steals for Iowa State, 10th nationally.
It defends without fouling, limits offensive rebounds and its size has created problems for the opposition, as it ranks fourth nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency.
Cincinnati Basketball
Cincinnati has had less consistency in its starting lineup and as a result, less consistency on the floor.
The Bearcats are 9-8 on the season, and with Jizzle James finally getting into the fold, Cincinnati should remain a dangerous group down the stretch.
Cincinnati took Houston, West Virginia and UCF to the wire, losing three games by a combined 10 points, and it hasn't played its best basketball yet. Wes Miller-coached teams are always going to be tough, hard-nosed defensive teams, and this iteration has that mold.
Cincy is excellent defensively on the glass, and it pressures ball handlers very well. The Bearcats rank fourth nationally in preventing offensive boards and 29th in overall defensive turnover percentage.
These guys make you work every possession and Cincinnati can grind games down in the second half really well. We've seen Miller lean into his defensive prowess by slowing the pace of games since entering league play, a trend I expect to continue.
Iowa State vs. Cincinnati Betting Analysis
This line opened Iowa State -6.5 with a total of 139.5. I'm going to be looking at the under here.
Both of these defenses are elite when looking at the metrics. Iowa State ranks fourth nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency and third in turnovers forced.
The on-ball pressure provided by the guards and the great team anticipation have caused opponents to struggle to move the basketball side to side. This has resulted in poor shots deep in the possession clock or turnovers, something Cincinnati might struggle with.
Iowa State took the night off defensively against Kansas, something that isn't going to sit well with T.J. Otzelberger. I would expect this team to come out fully locked in and wide-eyed defensively against the Bearcats, who are going to have to make a ton of shots from deep to stay in this game.
Cincinnati has a good defense as well, eighth in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric. The Bearcats keep opponents off the glass, and they really guard the rim well.
The Bearcats are top-100 level in terms of 2-point and 3-point defense and are a very good rebounding team, so expect this scrappy bunch to play inspired defensive hoops on Saturday.
Some have the pace projected at 70 possessions or so, but both Miller and Otzelberger have slowed the tempo considerably in league play this season.
I think we see this one played at 65-67 total possessions and in a matchup between two of the better defensive programs in the Big 12, I'll call for this closely contested game to stay under the posted total.
My Pick: Under 140.5 (Play to 137)
