The Iowa State Cyclones take on the TCU Horned Frogs in Fort Worth, Texas. Tip-off is set for 9 p.m. ET on Fox Sports 1.
Iowa State is favored by -6.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -280. The total is set at 148.5 points.
Here’s my Iowa State vs. TCU prediction and college basketball picks for February 10, 2026.
Iowa State vs TCU Prediction
My Pick: Iowa State -6.5 (Play to -8)
My Iowa State vs TCU best bet is on the Cyclones to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Iowa State vs. TCU Odds
| Iowa State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 148.5 -110o / -110u | -280 |
| TCU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 148.5 -110o / -110u | +230 |
- Iowa State vs TCU spread: Iowa State -6.5
- Iowa State vs TCU over/under: 148.5 points
- Iowa State vs TCU moneyline: Iowa State -280, TCU +230
Iowa State vs TCU College Basketball Betting Preview
Iowa State Basketball
Iowa State quickly bounced back from losing back-to-back games in mid-January by winning five consecutive matchups against teams outside the top 40.
Iowa State is one of the best defensive teams in America, which is par for the course for T.J. Otzelberger. The Cyclones' physicality on the defensive end leads to them forcing turnovers at a 22% clip.
Most teams that are physical on the defensive end and force turnovers struggle with fouls. Not Iowa State, though, as it ranks 13th with a 26% defensive free-throw rate.
Don't sleep on the Cyclones' offense, either. They rank 11th in offensive efficiency, per KenPom, and boast some very promising stats.
They rank top-10 in three pivotal categories: offensive rebound rate (38.1%, 10th), 3-point percentage (40.7%, 12th) and effective field goal percentage (58.8, 6th).
Milan Momcilovic is one of the premier reasons for Iowa State's offensive success. He's the best shooter in the country, drilling 53% of his looks from downtown.
Joshua Jefferson might be the most slept-on player in the country. He ranks second in KenPom's National Player of the Year rankings, and for a good reason. The senior forward averages 17 points, seven rebounds and five assists per game while shooting 40% from deep. He's the most versatile big man in America.
One of the more underrated things that Iowa State does is dominate on the offensive glass. The Cyclones snag offensive rebounds at a 38% clip. Starting center Blake Buchanan is 42nd in offensive rebound rate, and he averages six boards per game.
TCU Basketball
The Horned Frogs are one of the nation's most confusing teams. They have wins over Florida and Wisconsin on neutral courts and nearly beat Michigan in Waco. They also have losses to New Orleans, Colorado and Utah mixed in.
Here's the problem with the Horned Frogs: Their offense is a total mess. They rank 103rd in offensive efficiency, per KenPom. TCU doesn't have much shooting, connecting on just 32% of its shots from deep.
The only two reliable shooters for TCU are guards Jayden Pierre and Liutauras Lelevicius. Pierre shoots 37% from deep, and Lelevicius shoots 40% from deep. Outside of them, TCU lacks a guy Jamie Dixon can draw up plays for.
The two leading scorers for TCU are David Punch and Xavier Edmonds, but a lot of its points are effort-based buckets. Punch is a baller, scoring 14 points per game, but he's not a shooter, which limits his upside.
Meanwhile, Edmonds can stretch the floor in a low-volume capacity, shooting 42% from deep on 24 shots.
For TCU to compete with Iowa State, it'll have to defend at an elite level. The Horned Frogs rank 35th in defensive efficiency and boast a dazzling 19% turnover rate.
Due to TCU's lack of height (327th in adjusted height), it'll look to pressure more and use its speed to maximize its defensive upside.
Teams shoot 49% from 2-point range and 34% from 3-point range against TCU's defense. That shows why the Horned Frogs' forcing turnovers is so important.
Iowa State vs. TCU Betting Analysis
The line sits with Iowa State -6.5, but I'll lay the points on the road.
I liken this matchup to the Frogs' matchup against Houston and Arizona — both of whom mirror Iowa State.
Those teams focus on forcing turnovers and dominating the offensive glass.
That's a bit of a concern for TCU in this matchup. I expect the Frogs' to struggle against Jefferson and Buchanan with their lack of size, leading to Iowa State dominating on the glass.
Also, finally, our Action PRO projections have this spread at -9 in favor of the Clones. That gives us nearly three points of value, which our projections say results in a B- grade.
My Pick: Iowa State -6.5 (Play to -8)
