The Michigan Wolverines take on the Northwestern Wildcats in Evanston, IL. Tip-off is set for 8:30 p.m. ET on BTN.
Michigan is favored by 14.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -1600. The total is set at 152.5 points.
Here’s my Michigan vs. Northwestern predictions and college basketball picks for February 11, 2026.
Michigan vs Northwestern Prediction
My Pick: Michigan -14.5 (Play to -16)
My Michigan vs Northwestern best bet is on the Wolverines to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Michigan vs. Northwestern Odds
| Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14.5 -118 | 152.5 -110 / -110 | -1600 |
| Northwestern Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14.5 -102 | 152.5 -110 / -110 | +900 |
- Michigan vs Northwestern spread: Michigan -14.5
- Michigan vs Northwestern over/under: 152.5 points
- Michigan vs Northwestern moneyline: Michigan -1600, Northwestern +900
Michigan vs Northwestern College Basketball Betting Preview
Michigan Basketball
Don't look now, but Michigan might be back to its early-season dominance, as the Wolverines beat Penn State by 41 and then Ohio State by 21.
It's easy to spot why.
When Michigan didn't blow teams out early in conference play, it struggled shooting from deep. In the win over Penn State, Michigan hit 15-of-29 3s, and it went 10-of-24 in the win over Ohio State.
From January 6 to February 4, the Wolverines shot 30% from deep. In contrast, from Nov. 3 to Jan. 5, Michigan hit just 36% from deep.
What always travels for Michigan is its elite defense. The Wolverines boast the best defense in America, per KenPom. They hold teams to 42% shooting from 2-point range (second nationally) and also to 29% from deep (12th)
Nobody is beating Michigan on the glass, as it grabs 36% of its misses on the offensive end, while holding teams to a 27% offensive rebound rate.
That's what happens with big men like Yaxel Lendeborg, Morez Johnson Jr. and 7-foot-2 stud Aday Mara. All three of them stand 6-foot-9 or taller and 240 pounds or bigger.
In this matchup, Mara could be in for a big one. The tallest starter for Northwestern is 6-foot-9, so it'll either need to double Mara or live with what happens.
Northwestern Basketball
Northwestern is wasting what's been an elite senior season for Nick Martinelli. The Wildcats are 10-14 overall and 2-11 in Big Ten play.
Martinelli is an absolute stud, leading the Big Ten in scoring with 22.7 points per game. He's the only reason to really watch Northwestern hoops these days.
The smooth left-hander is everything for the Wildcats. For example, he scored four points against Illinois and the Wildcats lost by 40.
Offense is what drives this Northwestern squad, ranking 66th in efficiency. In terms of turning the ball over, only one team gives the ball away less than Northwestern, which turns it over 12.3% of the time.
Shooting is a problem for Northwestern, though. It hits a woeful 31% from downtown, and Martinelli is the only good marksman on the roster.
Only two players outside of Martinelli average 10+ points per game. Fellow big man Arrinten Page is one of them, but he's fallen close to out of the rotation. The other is speedy point guard Jayden Reid, who shoots just 38% from the field and 32% from deep.
Based on talent, Northwestern is clearly lacking compared to Michigan.
Due to Northwestern's lack of length, it struggles on the glass. The Wildcats give up offensive rebounds on 33.6% of misses and grab them at just a 27% clip.
The defensive rebounding woes affect their overall defensive numbers due to the clean looks off the rebounds. They aren't noticeably bad in 2-point and 3-point defense.
Michigan vs. Northwestern Betting Analysis
I'm laying the points with Michigan.
Northwestern will look to slow the game down compared to the rampant pace that Michigan will look for. That's the one path for Northwestern covering the spread, but Michigan is just so good at suffocating smaller, less talented teams.
The key for Michigan to cover? Dominating the glass, which it should do, and shoot it well from deep. If those two things happen, it'll be a very uphill battle for Northwestern.
My Pick: Michigan -14.5 (Play to -16)
