While Thursday was the warm up, Friday is the main course, as there are blue bloods galore (especially in Washington D.C.).
Our staff has you covered from a betting perspective, providing four picks to potentially add to your betting card.
Here's our NCAA Tournament predictions, including our Sweet 16 top picks for Friday, March 27.
NCAA Tournament Predictions for Friday's Sweet 16 Games
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:10 p.m. | |
  | 7:35 p.m. | |
| 7:35 p.m. | |
| 7:35 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
St. John's vs. Duke
One strange but true stat about this matchup between Duke and St. John’s: The Blue Devils have beaten St. John's in the regular season or in the NCAA Tournament in all five of their national championship seasons.
At full strength, Duke would be on track to make it a sixth time. But here’s the rub, the Blue Devils are banged up.
Patrick Ngongba II’s absence nearly resulted in a stunning upset loss to Siena in the first round. The Saints led by as many as 11 and were tied with Duke with under five minutes to play.
He did return for the second-round matchup with TCU, but he played just 13 minutes off the bench and had as many turnovers and fouls as he did points and rebounds.
Further complicating matters is the status of Caleb Foster. Duke’s point guard hasn’t played since March 7, when he fractured his foot against North Carolina. The Blue Devils ranked sixth in adjusted offensive efficiency with Foster running the show. With him on the sidelines, that ranking has fallen to 30th.
CBS Sports’ Jon Rothstein has reported that there's an “outside chance” that Foster returns on Friday against the Johnnies. That would be less than three weeks after he underwent surgery to repair his foot. It would also be more than a month ahead of a normal recovery timeline.
Without Foster on the floor, Duke’s turnover rate has become a significant issue. The Blue Devils have ranked 186th in offensive turnover rate in the five games without Foster on the floor.
Rick Pitino’s defense will swarm Duke’s ball handlers — just as it did against Kansas on Sunday. The Jayhawks turned it over 16 times, and that was with a steady point guard (Melvin Council Jr.) and a future NBA All-Star (Darryn Peterson) controlling the rock for most of the game.
St. John’s ability to win the turnover battle on a nightly basis has helped it rise to sixth in the extra scoring chances department (+5.6).
Given the Johnnies' offensive limitations, those extra chances have made a world of difference. They knocked off Kansas despite shooting 36% from the field and 55% from the charity stripe. Their ferocious defense and relentless work on the offensive glass give them more paths to victory.
The final piece of this St. John's upset puzzle is Zuby Ejiofor. The senior power forward won both the Big East Player of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year honors. It’s his defensive chops that really make this game more of a coin flip than the moneyline would indicate.
He’s held star bigs like UConn’s Tarris Reed Jr. and Kansas’ Flory Bidunga in check this month. And now he’s ready for his biggest test when he faces off with Cam Boozer.
Boozer has been thrust into more of a ball-handler role with Foster sidelined, and that has cut into his efficiency significantly.
With Foster initiating the offense, it was rare for Boozer to turn it over more than three times in a game. Without his point guard, Boozer has played a point-forward role at times, and his turnover rate has spiked (4.4 TO per game).
This is where St. John’s can frustrate the presumptive Wooden Award winner and gain vital possessions along the way.
If Ejiofor wins this battle, the Johnnies will win the war.
Pick: St. John's ML +240
Alabama vs. Michigan
It's offense vs. defense in this No. 1 vs. No. 4 duel at the United Center in Chicago. Michigan owns the second ranked defense in the country (according to KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency ratings) while Alabama is ranked third on offense (via KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency ratings).
So, which side will win out? Well, our Action PRO projections say the offensive-first squad will win out, giving Alabama an edge against the spread.
Our projections have this line at +7.9, giving us a nice +5.4% edge on the +10 spread currently circulating at the time of writing.
Even though Michigan's offense shouldn't be discounted, count on Bama's offense to come through, even without its second-leading scorer Aden Holloway.
Pick: Alabama +10
Alabama vs. Michigan
By Ryan Minion
I expect Yaxel Lendeborg to have a massive game against a lackluster Alabama defense that's allowing upwards of 82 points per game to its opponents.
Alabama’s defense must contain an up-tempo Michigan offense that can match its pace and boasts tremendous versatility. The Wolverines are capable of scoring from all over the floor, and that all starts with Lendeborg.
Alabama’s pace of play has its advantages until it's matched up against a Michigan offense that will expose the Tide on that end. The defense ranks outside the top 340 nationally in both total points allowed and total rebounds allowed per game.
Also, Lendeborg is coming off an extremely dominant 25-point performance against Saint Louis in the second round, and I expect him to score more than 16 points with ease on Friday.
Pick: Yaxel Lendeborg Over 16.5 Points
Alabama vs. Michigan
By Evan Abrams
I'm sticking with the Alabama vs. Michigan game, but instead of a play on the spread or a player prop, I'm targeting the total.
The basis of my pick centers around a "Neutral Court Unders" system from Bet Labs Sports Insights and our Action PRO subscription.
In fact, there's a deep dive into this system here:
While the David vs. Goliath type games are typically avoided by bettors, these early season tournaments (Puerto Rico Tip-Off, Charleston Classic, 2K Sports Classic [North Dakota and New York], Paradise Jam [Virgin Islands], Coaches vs. Cancer Classic [New York], Maui Invitational, etc.) are almost always the most bet games of the day.
What’s particularly interesting about these tournaments is that almost all of them are played during the month of November, and that got us thinking. We know that the under has been historically undervalued, but that edge had to be amplified in these early season tournaments. After all, playing in a marquee (typically televised) matchup on a neutral court can place a lot of pressure on teams with limited experience playing together.
Our hypothesis was that nerves would get the best of these young-student athletes resulting in lower-scoring games and more games going under the total.
While the focus of this article linked above is on early-season tournaments, this also applies to two heavyweights in the NCAA Tournament.
But most importantly, this system has a 1297-113-20 overall record (54% win%) with a solid 3% return on investment.
Pick: Under 174.5
