The Nebraska Cornhuskers take on the Iowa Hawkeyes in Iowa City, Iowa. Tip-off is set for 9 p.m. ET on BTN.
Iowa is favored by 1.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -115. The total is set at 137.5 points.
Here’s my Nebraska vs. Iowa prediction and college basketball picks for February 17, 2026.
Nebraska vs Iowa Prediction
My Pick: Under 137.5 (Play to 134)
My Nebraska vs Iowa best bet is on the under. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Nebraska vs. Iowa Odds
| Nebraska Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 137.5 -110 / -110 | -105 |
| Iowa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 137.5 -110 / -110 | -115 |
- Nebraska vs Iowa spread: Iowa -1.5
- Nebraska vs Iowa over/under: 137.5 points
- Nebraska vs Iowa moneyline: Nebraska -105, Iowa -115
Nebraska vs Iowa College Basketball Betting Preview
Nebraska Basketball
Nebraska has obliterated preseason expectations, sitting at 22-3 overall and 11-3 in Big Ten play, firmly in the mix for a conference title and a top seed in the NCAA Tournament. The Cornhuskers have struggled a bit of late, going just 1-3 ATS over their last four, but the underlying profile remains extremely strong on both ends.
The defense is the backbone. Nebraska ranks top-10 nationally in defensive efficiency, per KenPom, doing so via discipline and physicality and making everything uncomfortable. They never foul, they rebound at a high level and they apply constant ball pressure.
Sam Hoiberg is outstanding at the point of attack, hounding opposing guards and blowing up rhythm early in possessions.
The one vulnerability: 3-point volume. Nebraska ranks 361st nationally in opponent 3-point attempt rate, meaning teams can get a lot of looks up from deep. If those shots fall, Nebraska can get buried. But you won’t get easy rim runs or free throws.
Offensively, this group is a joy to watch. The ball pops. Everyone cuts. Everyone can pass. Nebraska ranks 10th nationally in 3-point attempt rate and sixth in assist rate, a reflection of just how unselfish and well-spaced the attack is.
Pryce Sandfort and Rienk Mast headline the scoring, blending size with skill and floor spacing. Around them, Jamarques Lawrence and Braden Frager have been excellent complementary pieces, adding shot-making and connective play.
Nebraska doesn’t overwhelm with raw athleticism, but the execution, discipline and balance are real. This is a complete team, but the stiffening schedule could present some major challenges.
Iowa Basketball
Iowa has been solid for much of the season, but the shine has dulled a bit lately. Iowa is just 2-5 ATS over its last seven games, and a 2-5 record in Quad 1 opportunities has cooled some of the early optimism. The resume is still respectable, but the margin for error is shrinking.
The constant has been Bennett Stirtz. He’s been every bit as brilliant as advertised: rarely leaving the floor, controlling tempo and carrying the offense with elite shot-making and playmaking.
Stirtz is a true ball-screen savant, ranking in the 97th percentile nationally in frequency of pick-and-rolls plus passes, per Synergy, and Iowa as a team sits in the 98th percentile in overall pick-and-roll efficiency. When the ball is in his hands, good things happen almost automatically.
The issue is what happens when it’s not. The supporting cast has gone ice cold over the last three games, combining to shoot just 37-of-112 (33.0%) from the field, including a brutal 8-of-44 (18.2%) from 3. Cooper Koch, Brendan Hausen and Alvaro Folgueiras have been the primary culprits during that stretch.
Meanwhile, Stirtz has been scorching — 32-of-53 (60.4%) from the field and 10-of-22 (45.5%) from 3 — essentially keeping Iowa afloat by himself.
Defensively, the Hawkeyes are better than their reputation suggests. They have strong positional size and can defend competently in the half-court when they’re not overwhelmed by elite athleticism.
But until the perimeter shooting normalizes around Stirtz, Iowa will remain overly dependent on one creator, and that’s a tough way to survive against top-tier competition.
Nebraska vs. Iowa Betting Analysis
This matchup is rough for Iowa’s offensive system. Everything the Hawkeyes want to do runs through Stirtz in ball screens. He’s elite there in both frequency and efficiency, but Nebraska is uniquely equipped to disrupt that rhythm.
Nebraska allows pick-and-roll ball-handlers to finish possessions at just an eighth-percentile rate nationally, per Synergy, and ranks in the 100th percentile in efficiency against them. The Huskers are suffocating. With Hoiberg likely glued to Stirtz all night, Iowa’s primary action is going to be uncomfortable from the jump.
Tempo should cooperate, too. This projects at 64 possessions, per KenPom, and that feels right. Nebraska has shown a willingness to be a pace taker, content to grind games into half-court battles where execution and rebounding matter more than quick-hitting runs.
Iowa is one of the slowest teams in the country, and Nebraska’s transition defense will prevent any easy leak-outs.
There’s also a subtle tug-of-war in the side handicap. The situational spot slightly favors Iowa in a buy low at home, while the matchup profile leans Nebraska. That conflict makes the spread tricky, but it reinforces the idea that this game is more likely to be tight and deliberate than explosive.
With Nebraska’s condensed defense shrinking driving lanes and Iowa’s supporting cast still searching for consistency, this feels like a possession-by-possession game.
I’ll stay off the side and trust the defensive matchup.
Under is the play.
My Pick: Under 137.5 (Play to 134)
